Apex Mining: Multi-year gold upside

From AB Capital's "The Opening Bell: The Three Moves"

Event

Apex Mining (APX) is entering a multi-year operational and earnings upcycle, supported by a structurally higher gold price regime, fiscal clarity under the Enhanced Mining Act, and a planned >40% increase in milling capacity across Maco and Sangilo by 2028, alongside the development of the Amacan project.

View

We view APX as a high-beta, operationally leveraged gold producer positioned to disproportionately benefit from sustained elevated gold prices. Rising production volumes, improving EBITDA margins, and declining regulatory risk underpin a visible cash-flow inflection. Current valuation multiples remain undemanding relative to regional peers, suggesting scope for a re-rating as execution milestones are delivered.

Catalyst

Completion of the Maco ramp-up to 3,500 tpd and Sangilo’s expansion to 1,500 tpd by 2027–28, and progress toward the 2028 commissioning of Amacan. The primary valuation re-rating catalyst would be gold prices sustainably above US$4,300/oz, forcing upward revisions to long-term price assumptions and supporting multiple expansion.

Action

We initiate coverage with an OUTPERFORM rating and a fair value of P22.11/sh, based on a DCF assuming US$3,500/oz gold in 2025 and a bull-case US$4,300/oz from 2026 onward. We recommend accumulating APX as a leveraged play on structurally higher gold prices with improving operational scale, fiscal visibility, and long-dated growth optionality.

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Disclaimer: The information, analyses, and views contained herein is based on sources which we, AB Capital Securities, believe are reliable, but is not guaranteed by us and is not to be considered all inclusive. It is not to be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy the securities herein mentioned. AB Capital Securities and its Directors and Officers and/or members of their families may have a position in the securities herein mentioned and may make purchases and/or sales of the securities from time to time in the open-market and otherwise.