WTF is going on?

Your daily review of what happened while you were sleeping.

> DOW:  As of this writing the DOW has had a choppy session, up 200 points early, but down around 50 points as of this writing with a couple of hours to market close. 

> Trade war:  Trump said he also plans to tariff pharmaceutical products in a move to onshore pharma manufacturing, but provided no details on that plan [link]. China has taken a new approach to the escalating trade war that was started by the US by now making accusations the US launched “advanced” cyberattacks against the Asian Winter Games in February [link].     

> Gold:  Yesterday, Goldman Sachs revisited its FY25 gold price forecast to $3,700, and revealed that it expects the price of gold to rise to as high as $4,000/ounce by mid-2026 on continued (and growing) uncertainty about both the strategy and execution of Trump’s trade war [link].

> Bitcoin:  Crypto prices have been volatile, but forums are filled with references to Ray Dalio’s worry “about something worse than a recession” [link]. 

> Oil:  Oil producers are preparing for a steep downturn in the global economy, and a downturn in activity means a downturn in price. Goldman Sachs predicts a FY26 average price of $55/barrel based on a stagnant US economy, which is a price that could make some existing projects infeasible [link].

MB bottom-line: All things considered, it was a quiet night for all the combatants in this looming economic showdown. Sure, Trump made reckless comments that appeared to suggest he’s comfortable with sending “home grown” American criminals to an El Salvadorian gulag, but maybe that’s just a niche thing that only people who have had the displeasure of taking CivPro in law school might care about (/s). The only clear signal that I can take from the overnight news is that whatever Trump is doing feels made-up in the moment, and may only be a smash-and-grab of the world economy to establish a firm grip around the neck of US industry. To what end? 

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