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Stock Commentary

Quick Take: DITO's woes and 3 more market updates

Merkado Barkada
Quick Take: DITO's woes and 3 more market updates
To DITO’s credit, it exceeded its 12 million subscriber goal by the end of FY22 by a considerable margin, and it did so while improving ARPU, but my god those currency and debt headwinds are strong. DITO’s stock is down 46% over the past year.
Merkado Barkada

Alternergy [ALTER 2.84; 56% avgVol] [link] stability report reveals that the fresh IPO’s stabilization fund agent “spent” another 26.4 million shares last week to bring its total usage to around 86 million of the 115 million shares in the quota. The stabilization fund is 75% depleted, with one week left to go in the fund’s lifespan.

MB Quick Take: ALTER has struggled to punch through the resistance of its IPO price, but the stabilization fund’s spend has been fairly consistent and it has about 25% left to spend during the last 25% of its life.
 

PLDT [TEL 1284.00 1.9%; 2341% avgVol] [link] announced a substantial list of departing executives as a result of the damaging capex overrun fiasco discovered in December of 2022. TEL disclosed that its Chief Procurement Officer voluntarily resigned, while its CFO and Network Head availed of “early retirement”. A vice president availed of TEL’s manpower reduction program, and another vice president voluntarily resigned. TEL did not announce any appointments to fill these vacant positions.

MB Quick Take: That capex mess was too big for there to be no consequences. The explanations that TEL has provided (so far) have been so vague and unsatisfying that the only answer seemed to be that it was a personnel issue. These are huge changes. The CFO role in particular, due to its intimacy, is a difficult one to replace quickly. Maybe TEL can make an opportunity out of this crisis and come out the other side with a leaner, meaner executive core.
 

DITO CME [DITO 2.70 3.9%; 1463% avgVol] [link] posted a FY22 net loss of P25.6 billion, which was 42% worse than its FY21 net loss of P17.9 billion. DITO’s losses actually accelerated into Q4; its 9M net loss was P14.2 billion, meaning that it lost P11.4 billion in Q4 alone. DITO said that its total subscriber count had increased to 15 million, and that its monthly average revenue per user (ARPU) was P83. DITO’s foreign exchange losses grew 17% to P7.2 billion. DITO’s interest expense grew 324% to P5.3 billion. The company said that it plans to conduct a follow-on offering in 2023, and it reported that Udenna Corp (Dennis Uy’s personal holdco) has “committed to provide additional capital” in addition to having its outstanding advances to DITO converted to equity.

MB Quick Take: While it’s hopeful to see DITO’s ARPU jump 7% q/q, it’s alarming to see its subscriber acquisition rate get chopped in half, from 36% q/q in Q3 to 15% q/q in Q4. To DITO’s credit, it exceeded its 12 million subscriber goal by the end of FY22 by a considerable margin, and it did so while improving ARPU, but my god those currency and debt headwinds are strong. DITO’s stock is down 46% over the past year.
 

Chelsea Logistics [C 1.16 0.8%; 7% avgVol] [link] posted a FY22 net loss of P2.5 billion, which was actually 35% better than its FY21 net loss of P3.9 billion. Chelsea attributed its continuing struggles to the “double blow” of the continued risk of COVID sub variants to disrupt its business, coupled with the high price of fuel as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Gross revenues were up 44% to P6.4 billion on easing restrictions, with gains in all segments. Gross expenses were down 10% as a result of cost control measures.

MB Quick Take: The last time Chelsea turned a profit was back in 2017, but its losses really accelerated when Dennis Uy changed the company’s name and focus to include catching some of his falling knives. Losing just P2.5 billion is a huge improvement, but it’s still a factor of 10 worse than it was back when Chelsea was just a focused logistics company.

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Merkado Barkada's opinions are provided for informational purposes only, and should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any particular stock. These daily articles are not updated with new information, so each investor must do his or her own due diligence before trading, as the facts and figures in each particular article may have changed.

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ALTERNERGY

CHELSEA LOGISTICS AND INFRASTRUCTURE HOLDINGS CORP.

DITO TELECOMMUNITY CORP.

PHILIPPINE STOCK EXCHANGE

PLDT INC.

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