Jet fuel

According to tracking data from services like Flight Aware and FlightRadar24, which track transponder-equipped aircraft, between 10,000 and 20,000 aircraft are in the air at any given moment. Peak times push that number higher. All those flights carry roughly one to two million passengers at any given time. Up to 100,000 flights take off and land daily.

Indeed, we take commercial aviation for granted in our modern world. From passengers to cargo, we all depend on an international aviation system that has proven safe and reliable for decades. All that has been drastically disturbed by Trump’s mess at the Strait of Hormuz.

It is simple: aircraft need jet fuel and the world’s supply of jet fuel has been upended by the blockade at Hormuz. This has led to mass flight cancellations and record-high ticket prices.

The leading exporters of jet fuel are Kuwait and Bahrain, whose product is trapped because of the closure of Hormuz, according to data from Kpler, a leading data, analytics and software company providing real-time intelligence on global commodity trade and maritime shipping. Over 20 percent of global seaborne jet-fuel supply passed through the Strait of Hormuz last year.

In our region, the major jet fuel producers are China, South Korea, Singapore, Japan and Thailand. Since their jet fuel production depends on crude oil that must traverse Hormuz, most of these countries have implemented severe export bans or limits to protect their domestic supplies.

Reports indicate that jet fuel prices have doubled, and in some markets like Singapore, surged by nearly 195 percent to $230 per barrel since the conflict began in February 2026. IATA reports global prices have more than doubled, reaching roughly $209 per barrel in early April.

Several countries have informed foreign carriers that they can no longer provide refueling services, compelling airlines to carry enough fuel for their return flights — a practice known as fuel tankering.

While tankering allows flights to continue, it significantly increases the aircraft’s weight, leading to higher fuel consumption, reduced cargo capacity and increased ticket prices or fuel surcharges.

Some airlines — including Cebu Pacific, Vietnam Airlines and major European carriers like Lufthansa — have opted to cancel flights or reduce frequencies rather than absorb increased costs.

For us in the Philippines, the Energy department claims we have enough jet fuel supply to last about 60.69 days. If push comes to shove, only the Petron refinery can produce jet fuel but only if it gets more crude oil from sources outside of Hormuz.

Luckily, Ramon Ang insisted on investing $2 billion in a refinery upgrade even as rivals Shell and Caltex were shutting down their refineries because it made more business sense for them to do so. RSA saw the strategic importance of having a capable oil refinery for the country.

The Refinery Master Plan 2 (RMP-2) upgrade converts low-margin fuel oil into high-margin products like jet fuel and gasoline. Still, only so much jet fuel (about 10 percent) can be squeezed out of a barrel of crude oil. What Petron can supply may still be short of what our airlines need for normal operations.

In the refining process, jet fuel is essentially a high-grade kerosene. At the Petron Bataan Refinery, the kerosene fraction produced is almost entirely dedicated to making Jet A-1, which is the standard fuel for commercial aviation.

Petron removes impurities (like sulfur) from the raw kerosene to meet the strict international standards required for aircraft engines. Jet A-1 contains additives (like static dissipators and icing inhibitors) that aren’t necessary for basic lamp kerosene.

Industry sources estimate that at least 400,000 barrels per day of jet fuel normally produced in Asia-Pacific using Hormuz-transiting crude have been lost.

The scarcity has led to a swift rise in jet fuel prices, forcing airlines to raise fares. The fuel surcharge bracket in some regions had gone up from Level 8 to Level 19 in just two weeks. Surcharges for flights to Singapore/ Thailand now exceed $40 to $180 per leg or about P2,400 to P10,800 surcharge.

According to CNN, fuel is the second-largest cost for airlines, just behind labor. A single-aisle commercial jet burns roughly 800 gallons of jet fuel an hour. Widebodies generally burn even more.

Airlines have started to reduce if not remove inventory for low-cost booking classes and only full-fare tickets are being sold.

“There’s just no point in flying flights that are going to lose money that can’t cover the cost of fuel,” a United Airlines executive told Bloomberg.

Here at home, Philippine Airlines and Cebu Pacific, are adopting strategies to maintain operations as jet fuel prices nearly double to approximately $197 to $200 per barrel.

PAL management assured passengers that they have secured sufficient supply of jet fuel. PAL is prioritizing high-yield long-haul flights to the US and Canada, partly because those regions are less vulnerable to the regional fuel crunch.

To preserve fuel, PAL has extended the suspension of select services to Dubai and Doha. It has also canceled specific international routes from Cebu, including flights to Guam and Ho Chi Minh City and some domestic services from Clark.

Cebu Pacific suspended several international routes through October 2026, including services to Bangkok, Singapore, Hanoi and Jakarta. It has also canceled its Dubai route and reduced frequencies for Australia.

Highly dependent on commercial aviation, the tourism industry is devastated. Thailand is projecting a potential loss of up to three million international visitors if the conflict lasts six months, resulting in an estimated $4.6 billion in lost tourism revenue.

Our national hotel occupancy is expected to drop below 45 percent in a severe scenario where the conflict persists through the second half of the year.

It is now advisable for travelers to have travel insurance as air travel remains iffy. Flight cancellations may happen any time and the costs of travel disruptions from extra hotel nights to meals can add up.

Boo Chanco’s email address is [email protected]. Follow him on X @boochanco