Palay harvest seen falling to 10-year low

Higher fertilizer, fuel prices

MANILA, Philippines — Rice imports to the Philippines may surge to 4.8 million metric tons this year as palay production is expected to fall to its lowest level in a decade due to the effects of the conflict in the Middle East and the approaching El Niño weather phenomenon, the Department of Agriculture (DA) said.

Agriculture Assistant Secretary and spokesperson Arnel de Mesa said palay output this year may drop to 18.8 million metric tons if prices of fertilizer and fuel remain elevated. This would be the lowest unhusked rice production since 2016, when output was logged at 17.6 million MT.

In 2025, palay harvest reached 19.68 million MT. Before the Middle East crisis broke out, the DA was expecting production to hit a record high 20.28 million MT.

“The projection that we will have a record high for this year is a bit difficult,” De Mesa said.

“There is a lot of pressure we will see in the next cropping cycle. We have three shocks that we can expect in the next cropping season,” he said.

De Mesa added that if oil prices continue to increase, it would affect land and crop preparation during the incoming rice planting season. “It’s expensive to spend on tractors, cultivators, and other agri-machineries.”

He said rising fertilizer prices and the El Niño could also drive local production down.

Given this outlook, De Mesa said there would be an additional need for imported rice to offset the potential drop in local rice production in 2026.

He said the DA is projecting rice imports to increase to four million to 4.8 million MT “to sustain the country’s 85-day buffer stock requirements by the end of the year.”

If realized, this would be a 41.6-percent increase from the 3.39 million MT the country imported in 2025.

“We need to address this separately and jointly so that the effect won’t be reduced,” he added.