Another fuel price rollback expected, but looming US tariff poses risk — DOE
MANILA, Philippines — Oil firms are expected to slash pump prices again by roughly P1 per liter next week, the Department of Energy (DOE) said, marking a second week of rollbacks.
This anticipated rollback reflects easing tensions in the global market as the ceasefire between Israel and Iran continues to hold, calming earlier fears of disruptions in major shipping lanes in the Middle East.
Rino Abad, director of the DOE's Oil Industry Management Bureau (DOE-OIMB), said in an interview with dzMM that fuel prices are expected to go down based on the past four trading days.
Gasoline may be reduced by more than P1 per liter, while diesel could drop by up to P0.50 per liter. Kerosene prices, on the other hand, may fall by as much as P0.80 per liter.
Jetti Petroleum President Leo Bellas shared similar projections, estimating a rollback of P0.80 to P1 per liter for gasoline and P0.20 to P0.40 per liter for diesel.
“Prices fell this week as the risk premium built into crude oil and refined fuel products gradually unwinds due to easing of tensions in the Middle East” he said.
Abad attributed the anticipated fuel price rollback to two developments: the sustained ceasefire between Israel and Iran, and OPEC+’s planned production increase of 411,000 oil barrels per day in July, which is expected to improve global supply.
Some worry, however, that the rollback in prices might be short-lived.
Abad said the United States is expected to reimpose the 17% reciprocal tariff on Philippine exports on July 9, ending the 90-day suspension that temporarily cut the rate to 10% to allow for trade talks.
The higher tariff would make Philippine goods more expensive for American consumers, unless an extension is negotiated.
“Ibig sabihin mataas ho ‘yung tsansa na pababa ang price pero baka itong tariff, baka lang bumaliktad,” Abad said. (That means there's a strong chance that prices will go down, but because of the tariff, it might just reverse.)
Fuel prices surged last week, with gasoline rising by P3.50 per liter, diesel by P5.20 and kerosene by P4.80. Even with this week’s P2 rollback and a possible P1 cut next week, the total reduction would still fall short of fully offsetting the previous hikes.
As of July 1, the net increase in fuel prices stands at P9 per liter for gasoline, P10.05 for diesel and P1.85 for kerosene.
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