Jollibee Q3 profit: P3.0B (up 18% y/y)

Jollibee [JFC 259.40, down 0.2%; 179% avgVol] [link] posted a Q3 net income of P2.98 billion, up 18% y/y from its Q3/23 net income of P2.53 billion, and down 6% q/q from its Q2/24 net income of P3.19 billion. On a 9M basis, JFC’s net income was up 23% y/y to P8.88 billion, its system-wide sales increased 12% to P281 billion, and its revenue increased 10% to P196 billion. Worldwide Q3 same-store sales growth was 5.7%, with the greatest gains in the Coffee Bean and Tea Leaf segment (+10.7%) and the Europe, Middle East, Asia region (+10.5%). Two segments experienced same-store sales pullbacks: China (-12.1%) and Highlands Coffee (-2.5%). JFC said that it had a total of 9,598 stores globally at the end of Q3, an increase of 43% y/y thanks to the addition of 2,580 Compose Coffee stores and 4.4% systemwide organic growth. The Compose Coffee acquisition, which closed at the end of the third quarter, contributed 4.6% to JFC’s systemwide sales. 

MB bottom-line: JFC’s pivot into international coffee cannot be understated, but unless JFC has its sights set on picking off one of Japan’s leading brands (Japan is the top consumer of coffee in Asia), it’s going to have to consider Indonesia for its next move. The top four coffee consumers are Japan (difficult/expensive), China (difficult), South Korea (already bought Compose Coffee), and Indonesia. One of the biggest coffee companies in Indonesia is Kopi Kenangan, which has recently announced its goal to become “the biggest coffee chain in Southeast Asia. If the bee is going to be all about the buzz, maybe its next push is in this direction. I have no special information about JFC’s strategy, and I’ve not read anything to suggest that they’re planning to continue this strategy of picking off one of the biggest coffee companies in each of the coffee-craziest countries in SE Asia. But if they were, that’s an interesting place to look. Complete speculation on my part!  

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