Trade deficit seen widening in November – UK think tank

MANILA, Philippines — The Philippines’ trade deficit is expected to have widened further in November, with both exports and imports likely to have posted bigger declines, according to UK-based think tank Pantheon Macroeconomics.

In a report yesterday, Pantheon Macroeconomics chief emerging Asia economist Miguel Chanco and senior Asia economist Moorthy Krshnan said the country’s trade gap probably widened further in November 2023 to $4.45 billion.

In October last year, the country’s balance of trade in goods or the difference between the value of exports and imports amounted to a $4.17 billion deficit, 26 percent higher than the $3.31 billion shortfall in the same month in 2022.

The October trade deficit was also higher than the $3.58 billion trade gap in September.

“The recent base effect-driven crash in export growth probably deepened to -18 percent (year-on-year) from -17.5 percent, while the rate of decline in imports probably worsened to -4.7 percent y/y from -4.4 percent,” Chanco and Krshnan said.

Philippine merchandise export sales declined by 17.5 percent to $6.36 billion in October last year from $7.71 billion in the same month of 2022.

The value of the country’s imports also dipped 4.4 percent to $10.54 billion in October last year from $11.02 billion in 2022.

For the 10 months through October last year, the country posted a trade deficit of $44.07 billion, lower than the $50 billion trade shortfall in the same period of 2022.

Export sales of the country during the 10-month period decreased by 7.8 percent to $60.91 billion.

The country’s imports value also dropped by 9.6 percent to $104.97 billion.

The Philippine Statisctics Authority will release data on the country’s exports and imports for November on Jan. 10.