Philippines may import less rice this year

MANILA, Philippines — The Philippines is projected to import less rice this year – following the downtrend in international rice trade – amid ample stocks, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).

In its latest Food Outlook released, FAO said international rice trade may decline this calendar year 2023 – its first contraction in four years – to 53.6 million tons from a record-high of 56 million tons.

Of the total, nearly half or 25.6 million tons will go to Asia, the prime destination of global rice flows. This is 4.7 percent lower than the 2022 high.

The UN agency attributed the decline to “tighter exportable availabilities and higher import costs.”

Based on the report, the Philippines will mirror the downtrend in terms of rice imports this year.

The UN agency said the Philippines may import 3.5 million tons this year, down from its estimate of 3.9 million tons last year.

Data from the Bureau of Plant Industry (BPI) showed the country imported 3.83 million metric tons (MT) last year, which was significantly higher than the 2.77 million MT shipped in 2021.

“Sufficient local supplies are likewise forecast to enable the Philippines to reduce its imports from record highs registered in 2022,” FAO said.

Rice importing countries are also predicted to raise the size of their reserves by 1.1 percent to 131.6 million tons.

“Among other traditional importers, Iraq, the Republic of Korea, Malaysia, Nepal, Nigeria and the Philippines are all seen increasing their stocks at the close of their respective seasons,” FAO said.

For the Philippines, the UN agency sees closing stocks reaching 2.2 million tons in crop years 2022-2023 and 2023-2024, slightly up from 2.1 million tons in 2021-2022.

In terms of production, the Philippines is projected to produce 12.9 million tons of rice in crop year 2022-2023 and in 2023-2024, which is slightly lower compared with the 13-million-ton yield in 2021-2022.

FAO said uncertainties persist for secondary crops being planted along and south of the equator, where the Philippines is close.

“These uncertainties primarily surround weather conditions, given the high probability of an El Niño event emerging during the Northern Hemisphere summer and its association with reduced rainfall over parts of Southern and Southeastern Asia,” the UN agency said.