December typhoons

Decades ago, we had the impression that December typhoons were often destructive and deadly. Typhoons were supposed to end by late September. Now, however, typhoons come and go anytime, or so it seems.

But the typhoon the country experienced last week was a true to form December storm. Reports seem to indicate it was more destructive than Yolanda. For one thing, it devastated a wider and more heavily populated areas.

Louie Ferrer of Megawide, the company that runs the Mactan Cebu International Airport confirmed the damage to the facility in a Viber message. “Yes, especially Terminal 1 and airbridges. So we will use T2 for domestic and international operations.”

Manny Gonzalez, who runs the high end Plantation Bay resort in Mactan, also confirmed to me the devastating impact of Odette. He responded to my question via Messenger:

“Hi Boo. Thanks for your concern. We got hit badly, will have to close for several months to repair storm damage. Fortunately, no one hurt and no structural damage, but lots of roofs and trees gone.

“It was indeed pretty scary while the storm was going on. Yolanda was nothing compared to Odette. Well, at least it coincides with the Omicron wave, so I can be philosophical about the whole thing. Internet was off for two days, now intermittent.”

I have seen the video reports on ANC, and so sorry to learn how devastated Siargao and Bohol are. Tourism Secretary Berna Romulo Puyat now has a big challenge to help rehabilitate resorts.

What exactly is going on? Is climate change causing stronger and more destructive typhoons?

The abstract of a research paper on typhoons and climate change published in researchgate.net made this observation:

“The Philippines is one of the world’s most typhoon impacted places. There is strong scientific consensus that anthropogenic (man made) greenhouse gas emissions are causing climate change and that this is contributing to stronger typhoons due to higher sea surface temperatures and higher subsurface sea temperatures, which remove the natural buffer on typhoon strength occasioned when cold water up wells from below the ocean’s surface.

“These stronger typhoons carry more moisture, track differently, move faster and will be aggravated by sea level rise, one of the most certain consequences of climate change. The Philippines, with its large and rapidly growing population, is vulnerable to stronger typhoons and this vulnerability is exacerbated by localized environmental degradation.”

But, the paper also concludes that “ultimately, a discussion of climate injustice must be undertaken because, while the Philippines is vulnerable to typhoons augmented by climate change, the Filipino people bear a disproportionately low responsibility for causing climate change.”

The storms are yet another example of how extreme weather is becoming terrifyingly ordinary as the climate changes. An article in the German news media DW explains the science behind it.

“Each year the world is struck by about 86 tropical cyclones, according to a study published in the journal PNAS in May, and this has stayed constant over the last four decades. While scientists predict the number of cyclones may fall because of changing ocean conditions, the ones that do form will get stronger.

“This is because of simple physics. Warmer air holds more moisture: For every one degree Celsius (1.8 Fahrenheit) the atmosphere warms, the air holds about seven percent more water. By burning fossil fuels and heating the planet – particularly the oceans – we’ve put more water into the air.”

Apparently, that matters for tropical cyclones, like the ones we get in the Philippines, because they are powered by warm, humid ocean air. Rain falls when water vapor condenses. More water means more rain, and the heat released in that process strengthens the storm even further.

But as typhoons grow stronger from climate change, their destructiveness depends on “how well you deal with [them] as a society,” a climate scientist told DW. The difference in damage between countries like Haiti and the US, for example, is how much adaptation they can afford. “Very often it is the same storm producing thousands of deaths versus five,”

NASA research points to an increase in extreme storms over tropical oceans. Based on current climate model projections, NASA researchers concluded that extreme storms may increase 60 percent by the year 2100.

Typhoons’ maximum instantaneous wind speeds, a driver of wind damage, were also up. South Korean researchers said a hypothetical storm approaching the Korean peninsula in October would not weaken, which was the case in the past, because while the land begins to cool, the sea remains warmer longer.

What can we do about these destructive typhoons now that they come around almost yearly?

Rep. Joey Salceda, while he was Albay’s governor, showed us what disaster mitigation efforts can do by way of saving lives. His program has become a model for LGUs similarly situated.

We will also have to review our building code to take into account the stronger winds we are getting these days. Last week, there were a lot of reports about blown off roofs.

A study noted that “the maximum three-second wind gusts experienced during Yolanda were 375 kph, which are considerably greater than the design three-second gusts (310 kph for Eastern Samar and 300 kph for Leyte) specified in the National Structural Code of the Philippines.”

Many structures must be retrofitted to take stronger winds into account. Even the kind of roofing materials commonly used will have to be reconsidered. It sounds extreme, but the native architectural design in Batanes looks appropriate as we move forward. Houses like those in Santorini in Greece, with rounded roofs look good.

Of course saving lives is a primary concern. Moving population away from vulnerable coastal areas is a must.

The annual national budget must also increase provisions for disaster response. The President can’t just say there is no more money, pandemic or no pandemic, to deal with the sufferings Odette caused. Duterte must give up his billions in confidential funds and those allocated for NTF-ELCAC.

During this campaign season, VP Leni Robredo and Manny Pacquiao did right by immediately redirecting their campaign organizations to do disaster relief. People’s needs and welfare should always be top priority.

Boo Chanco’s email address is [email protected]. Follow him on Twittet @boochanco