'Odette' onslaught seen hurting Philippines' fragile recovery

MANILA, Philippines — The wrath of Typhoon Odette (Rai), which flattened homes and vast swathes of land in central and southern Philippines, is expected to dampen the economy’s delicate recovery from a pandemic-led collapse, economists said.

Reports tallied 208 deaths so far and losses in agriculture, businesses, and tourism projected to fall in the billions as Odette swept through Visayas and Mindanao days before Christmas, where consumer spending usually peaks.

For analysts, the devastation could indeed impact the country’s fragile economic recovery. Nicholas Antonio Mapa, senior economist at ING Bank in Manila, expects the gross domestic product to get trimmed as a result.

“Extensive damage wrought by the super typhoon to whittle down growth closer to the lower end of the official target of 5-5.5%,” Mapa said in a Viber exchange.

GDP growth in the third quarter stood at 7.1%, a performance that surprised many analysts and prompted the government to hike its growth target for this year to 5-5.5% from the old forecast of 4-5%.

For Michael Enriquez, chief investment officer at Sun Life Investment Management and Trust Corp., Odette’s onslaught will surely impact the country’s growth numbers in the fourth quarter.

“Definitely it will have a dent on the fourth quarter GDP in recovery as Cebu, Bohol, and Surigao (the heaviest hit) are major provinces for both consumption and tourism,” Enriquez said in a Viber message.

As it is, some domestic flights to and fro Odette-ravaged areas were resumed. Telecommunications firms and internet service providers also worked round-the-clock to bring back mobile signal and internet connectivity.

Provincial officials, such as from Surigao del Norte, projected the typhoon’s damage at P20 billion in the province. Siargao Island, a world-famous surfing destination situated in the province, bore the brunt of Odette’s landfall on Friday.

Karl Kendrick Chua, head of the National Economic and Development Authority, said the government is still assessing the extent of damage caused by Odette.

“Immediate relief operations are the priority now to mitigate effect on affected people” Chua said in a Viber message.

However, cost projections from various government agencies that have come in show it could impact the economy severely. The public works department’s initial projection estimated damage to infrastructure, such as bridges and national roads, at P213.9 million.

The Department of Agriculture, meanwhile, so far pegged losses for the agriculture sector in the regions of Calabarzon, Bicol, Western, Central, and Eastern Visayas, Central Mindanao, Davao, and Caraga to have reached P333.4 million, impacting the livelihoods of 12,570 farmers and fisherfolk. Volume of production losses stood at 19,640 metric tons, devastating 23,198 hectares of productive agricultural areas.

“Apart from the initial impact on agriculture, loss of productivity due to destruction of property and livelihood to knock back growth expectations as storm damage affects industry and services sectors as well,” ING Bank’s Mapa said.

“Full year growth could settle at 5% for the year,” he added.