YEARENDER: El Niño, natural disasters batter agri sector in 2015

MANILA, Philippines – The agricultural sector was hampered by the adverse effects of the El Niño weather phenomenon and typhoons that hit the Philippines, resulting in lower output for major crops, particularly palay and corn, for year-end 2015.

Palay production for the whole of 2015 is seen at 18.3 million metric tons (MT), 3.54 percent below the 2014 output of 18.97 million MT as several regions reported reductions in production and harvest area.

This downtrend was largely attributed to the continuous effects of El Niño and Typhoons Egay and Ineng on the July-September 2015 crop period, the damages brought by Typhoon Lando and the most recent Tropical Depression Nona that lashed Bicol Region and portions of the Visayas.

“If only the typhoons were not strong and the effects of El Niño did not worsen, we could have reached our original target,” Department of Agriculture (DA) Secretary Proceso Alcala said.

Furthermore, the expected decrease is also attributed to unrealized plantings as a result of delayed release and inadequate irrigation water, late occurrence of rains, and some areas left in-fallow.

“A lot of farmers were not able to plant because of El Niño and Lando so our losses were really substantial. Had it not for that, we could have reached 19.5 to 19.8 million MT which is almost within our original target of 20.069 million MT,” DA Assistant Secretary Edilberto de Luna added.

Likewise, corn production this year is estimated to reach 7.55 million MT, 2.8 percent lower than the 2014 level of 7.77 million MT as major areas including Cagayan Valley, Region 4A-Calabarzon, Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) and Davao Region may post significant decrease in production and harvest area during the last quarter.

Moreover, some of the country’s top industrial crops were also affected by the impending effects of El Niño, particularly during the third quarter of the year.

The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) has reported that sugarcane production dipped 41.8 percent to 0.89 million MT in the third quarter of last year from 1.54 million MT in the same period a year earlier.

The reduction in output was attributed to the decrease in area harvested due to effect of dry spell in the first half of 2015 as observed in Negros Occidental and the stunted canes harvested due to the effect of dry spell in Negros Oriental.

Rubber production also fell 6.2 percent in the third quarter of the year to 97,930 MT from 104,380 MT due to the drying-up of some rubber trees and low buying price of cup lump in North Cotabato while tapping activities were also affected by occurrence of frequent rains aside from low buying price of cup lump in Zamboanga Sibugay.

Furthermore, coconut production in the July to September period slightly decreased 0.3 percent in terms of volume to 3.93 million MT compared to 3.94 million MT in the same period in 2014, attributed to the cutting of old trees in Davao Region and the effect of dry spell in Sarangani and Bohol during the first half of 2015.

The decrease in number of coconut trees due to the effect of Typhoon Ruby in Eastern Samar and the minimal harvest due to effect of low buying price of copra in Zamboanga del Sur also lowered production.

Legacy for the past years

With the end of 2015 also comes the last six months of the Aquino administration and Alcala has pondered on what he has done for the last five and a half years in the department.

“I think my legacy or biggest contribution is bringing back the trust of the farmers to the government. We were able to move around and had face-to-face consultations with our agriculture and fisheries sector,” he said.

Despite failing to reach the 100 percent rice sufficiency level, the Philippines remains at the 95-96 percent level.

“I hope that interventions for 2017 will be given so that we will reach the 100 percent rice sufficiency level because whatever we do next year, for you to hit the sufficiency level, there should be a certain budget that will be allocated,” he said.

A portion of the proposed DA budget was supposedly allotted for the rice sufficiency level but was not granted. “We always understand that we are not the only department or agency who lays down budget proposals,” Alcala added.

Moreover, he commended the government for its consistent support to the department as major milestones were recorded under the administration, including the all-time highest palay and corn production in the Philippines.

He added the gap of agricultural exports and imports in the Aquino administration posted the lowest record and the department’s cumulative budget since 2011 has surpassed the combined approved budget during the Ramos, Estrada and Arroyo administrations.

Outputs to bounce back next year

Alcala noted that priority programs for next year is on more aggressive corn production and high value crops to further increase the competitiveness of the country.

Despite the significant decrease of outputs by year-end, DA said rice and corn production for the first quarter of 2016 is expected to post a slight increase based on farmers’ planting intentions.

The January-March 2016 forecasts indicate an increase of 0.31 percent from 4.37 million (MT) in 2015 to 4.38 million MT in 2016 as the increment may come from the expansion in harvest area by 1.15 percent.

The production of corn is also anticipated to increase by 0.48 percent, from 2.37 million MT in 2015 to 2.38 million MT in  2016 as higher outputs are expected in  Soccsksargen, Ilocos Region, Davao Region and Northern Mindanao.

A special fund for El Niño mitigation worth P2.1 billion the DA received will also help increase the first quarter of 2016 production, while another P900 million is already allotted for further mitigation of the El Niño effects.