Now trending: Corona impeachment

It seemed business practically stopped yesterday afternoon with business offices not taking calls as businessmen and top executives were glued to their TV sets watching the opening of the impeachment trial.

January 16 has become doubly significant and historic because it was also on that day 11 years ago when prosecutors staged a walkout during the impeachment of then President Joseph Estrada (over the decision not to open a mysterious brown envelope) – aborting the trial and triggering what has now become known as Edsa Dos.

From President Noynoy, to Chief Justice Corona, to the prosecutors and the defense lawyers, down to the senator-judges, everyone has something at stake in this trial in one way or another.

This exercise has far-reaching implications in many aspects, not only in terms of politics, but also for the business sector, with many businessmen saying they want to see due process and the rule of law followed in order to minimize the economic impact of the impeachment.

Any hint of instability could drive away investors coupled with a negative effect on the stock market. Despite earlier assurances from the Palace that they will not be sidetracked by the trial, several foreign investors, have intimated that among their concerns include political stability and the rule of law.

As a matter of fact, even overseas Filipino workers are monitoring the impeachment trial via live streaming and online coverage of the proceedings, with social media sites also a good source of updates. Unconfirmed reports indicate that the Corona impeachment will most likely top viewership of the Estrada impeachment – no doubt due to advanced information and communications technology that can bring the news real time, or as it unfolds, anywhere in the world. As they say in Tweeter parlance: It’s now trending!

US aggressive moves

Political leaders from the United States are coming to the Philippines one after the other, ostensibly to discuss topics of mutual interest such as terrorism, the Spratlys and human trafficking. Since the November visit of US State Secretary Hillary Clinton, there has been a lot of “interaction” between the two countries with several bilateral meetings slated in Washington between Defense Secretary Voltaire Gazmin and Foreign Secretary Albert del Rosario and their US counterparts. US President Barack Obama himself extended a personal invitation for President Noy to visit the United States which, according to US Ambassador Harry Thomas, will most likely happen middle of this year.

Political observers note that 2012 – an election year – is going to be a bit rough for President Obama who is running for reelection, and a renewed interest in the Philippines is not really surprising since the Filipino community in the US is estimated at over three million – comprising some 20 percent of the total Asian-American population.

Asia – in particular the Philippines and other claimants to the disputed Spratlys – have also become doubly important in America’s efforts to temper the growing influence of China. Obama’s military strategy includes a renewed focus on Asia and the Middle East, with China acknowledged as a regional power that can affect US security in a number of ways. No less than the US Navy’s naval operations chief Admiral Jonathan Greenert himself admitted that China will have the “greatest potential to affect the economic and the security dynamics in the region.”

According to think-tank Center for a New American Security or CNAS, Washington should increase its naval fleet from 285 warships to 346 in the next couple of years to arrest the growing perception that America’s power is on the decline. CNAS says, “diplomatic and economic engagement with China… will work better when backed by a credible military posture.” The US must also encourage its allies in Asia to strengthen their own military capabilities – which is probably why the Philippines is hoping to get another (Hamilton class) cutter in addition to the BRP Gregorio del Pilar turned over by the US last year. President Noy should take advantage of the renewed interest of the US but must balance it off with our Chinese neighbor.

Airlines business still hopeful

Despite past difficulties, the airline industry continues to be hopeful this year. The rumored negotiations between Philippine Airlines and the group of SMC president Ramon S. Ang have given the flag carrier a boost.

In the US, American Airlines has gone into bankruptcy with three suitors eyeing it including leading global investment firm TPG Capital. American Airlines registered the worst financial record in the industry compounded by bad labor relations. By filing for bankruptcy, the airline could take away billions in debt, reduce its costs and still acquire new planes – making it attractive to rivals such as Delta Airlines and US Airways who are also making a bid for AA.

While the US airline industry is bracing for a tough year on account of the Emission Trading Scheme imposed by the European Union that requires airlines to pay for aircraft emissions – which in turn has forced several airlines to impose surcharges for flights to Europe – global passenger demand is anticipated to grow by over six percent this year. Among the US carriers that have shown positive performance last year is Hawaiian Airlines which set a new record in its entire 82-year history with close to nine million passengers carried in 2011. 

According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA) however, the single biggest risk facing airline profitability would be the European economic turmoil which, if unresolved, could lead to bigger losses since the 2008 financial crisis.

Spy tidbit

PeopleAsia magazine will be holding its “2011 People of the Year” awarding ceremonies this Thursday at the Dusit Thani Manila. The five-star hotel has been very enthusiastic in holding the much-anticipated event, with no less than the “People’s Champ” Manny Pacquiao expected to grace the affair. Among the awardees include our favorite senator, Miriam Defensor Santiago who is the first Filipino and the first Asian to be elected to the International Criminal Court.

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