We need a risk mitigating culture

Philippine Airlines management knew a crisis was afoot for months but apparently did nothing to mitigate impact on their passengers. When the crisis happened last Tuesday, the airline was caught flatfooted and there was mass confusion among their passengers. That PAL management doesn’t practice risk mitigation strategies is not surprising. We have a “bahala na” mentality and we rarely learn from past mistakes.

We even take perverse pride in having survived calamities… like for example, we shouldn’t complain about Pedring because we have had worse ones like Yoling. Sure I remember Yoling… I remember feeling excited as flood waters rose over waist deep in our house in Paco and like most kids, unaware of the danger. So I totally understand the glee of the young boys frolicking in the dangerous swell along bay walk on Roxas Boulevard last Tuesday.

Dealing with natural calamities however is far from being kid’s stuff. In sharp contrast to us is New York City’s handling of Hurricane Irene this year. Mayor Bloomberg was accused of overdoing it because the hurricane weakened as it approached New York. But what if it didn’t?

A city is either prepared or it is not. It is far better to order closure of offices and schools the day before on the basis of a fairly reliable weather forecast than to send workers and students home on the day itself and exposing them to the storm’s dangers. And it is better to tell people mass transit will not operate in anticipation of power failure than to operate for a while and strand commuters when power fails.

One reason why Mayor Bloomberg pulled all the stops in preparing New York for that hurricane was because he was caught wanting the previous winter. A serious snowstorm closed down the city and found the city government grasping for snow plows among other inadequacies. Unlike us however, Mayor Bloomberg was not about to get caught unprepared the second time. So he overdid it and many New Yorkers were sneering, specially when the hurricane turned out tamer than expected. But so what? Mayor Bloomberg showed New York taxpayers that their government is capable, prepared for anything and ready to mitigate the threats on the lives of everyone.

I know we are third world but we can’t go on like this. With all the typhoons we get, there should be by now a manual of operations that lists the protocols on what to do and when to do them. We are always playing it by ear. We are always arguing when to release water from the dams. It takes too long for officials to tell us a typhoon is serious enough to keep workers and students home. As it happened with Pedring, we allowed workers to leave for work only to send them home by mid morning, exposing them to the threats they shouldn’t have been exposed to if decisions were made at the latest 4 am (to take commute time into account) instead of 9 am.

Those of us on Twitter and social media and have access to cable news channels like CNN have no problem about information. But that is not the case for most of our population. US-based Lito Austria sent me this e-mail that illustrates my point quite well:

I read your article on Star regarding Pedring. Here is my true story on that. I live here in Virginia, and I was awake by 5AM last Saturday and I normally watch CNN every morning. That Saturday, September 24. I already learned from CNN – weather news, CNN live version— that there is a super storm coming to the Philippines, hitting northern part of Luzon and Metro Manila. I remember he mentioned “super storm”, he even mentioned at least 140 + KPH winds, and lots of rain. The weather man in CNN said this will happen in 24 to 48 hours.

So that morning too, aroud 9AM Virginia time, I talked to my mom and sister in Quezon City to prepare for this. They said wala naman silang balita tungkol sa super storm. I was very surprised to see students stranded during the storm. Bakit sila pinapasok pa?

Mr. Chanco—please tell PAGASA that aside from using our own technology, they can also watch CNN regularly and check the web site of CNN too. I think our government can request an agreement with NOAA to share their weather information. NOAAmonitors both oceans, Pacific and Atlantic. NOAA practically monitors the whole planet. Or send one of PAGASA experts to be trained at NOAA. Our government could just ask the US government for these assistance as an ally. Getting the feed of their weather satellite would likely cost us little or nothing.

Another US-based Pinoy, Manny Sd Lopez who lives in Los Angeles wants to petition PAGASA to stop renaming typhoons and just use the international code name because it is confusing. For one thing, international media and weather monitoring agencies do not use our local name. Oo nga naman, other than the bureaucratic need to delineate their area of responsibility, there is no practical reason to rename typhoons.

Lopez also posted this comment on Facebook: The Philippines has been lucky so far, but we must plan and prepare for foreseeable disasters in our best ability and efforts as individuals, family or organization members and as citizens. What we could not humanely address, we leave it to God with our fervent prayers. Failure to plan and prepare however will consign us to destruction. We should address the increasing challenges of nature objectively, devoid of blinders of cultural constraints, political orientation or self-interests. National, LGU and business leaders should “exempt” disaster mitigation and management projects from SOPP’s and profiteering.

The Philippines being an archipelagic nation, our best defense against typhoons is precise weather information and forecasts, more so if we have to deal with the fact that our nation’s physical structures are generally weak and our people highly vulnerable to natural hazards. The most capable dude in PAGASA is Dr. Yumul, a funny and sensible guy, but he is a geologist by training. It takes years of formal education, rigorous study and experience to learn the growing complexities of atmospheric and hydrological science. PAGASA has a staff of around 1,400 many of whom are credentialed with certificates of accomplishment from so called tech schools along Recto... Our scientific institutions, particularly PAGASA must seriously consider hiring certified foreign atmospheric experts to help develop a new culture of excellence, improve the standards of service and overall performance. A small team of highly qualified foreign consultants can dramatically improve the nation’s weather information and forecasting system and disaster management.”

To say, as one reader did, “being ‘battle veterans’ of typhoons, we should know by now that signal number 2s may not be as scary as a 3 but it should be SOP to take precautions” is to accept present way of doing things as “puede na” because we have survived similar experiences before. I, for one, cannot accept “puede na”. We need a culture that strives for excellence even if that seems difficult to do now. We need a culture that strives to mitigate risks specially from something as mundane to us as typhoons.

When politicians extol the Filipino’s resiliency or ability to bounce back from adversities, it sounds to me like a subterfuge to divert attention from their continued failure to make things better. I realize our budget is limited but there are things we simply must prioritize. Getting better and more useful weather forecasts is one.

Classrooms

I was told that my information on the number of classrooms the P-Noy admin has built so far is wrong. The number is not seven but 17. Excuse me, I stand corrected. I must have misheard because I multitask all the time. But what is 10 less classrooms when 10,000 are normally built and 100,000 are actually needed?

One more thing… it wasn’t DepEd’s fault daw that only 17 were built. They got their SARO too late.

Aha! Si Butch Abad pala ang may kasalanan!

Laws of accounting

1. Trial balances don’t

2. Bank reconciliations never do

3. Working Capital does not

4. Return on Investments never will

Boo Chanco’s e-mail address is [email protected]. He is also on Twitter @boochanco