Cellphone firms see 5-M new subscribers

The country’s three mobile phone service providers will have to battle it out for the four to five million new subscribers that are expected to join the cellular bandwagon next year.

The Philippine Long Distance Telephone Co. (PLDT) Group estimates that the cellular phone penetration rate in 2008 will reach 60 percent, which means that around there will be roughly 54 million mobile phone subscribers, both prepaid and postpaid, out of a more than 90 million national population next year.

The National Statistics Office (NSO) estimates that there will be 88.7 million Filipinos by the end of 2007.

PLDT chairman Manuel Pangilinan earlier said he expects the nationwide mobile phone penetration rate to reach 55 percent by end-2007. Given an 88.7 million projected national population by yearend, this means a total subscriber base of 48.8 million.

Pangilinan projects next year’s penetration rate to reach 60 percent. “This means four to five million new subscribers for the industry,” he pointed out.

For his part, Globe Telecom president and chief executive officer Gerardo Ablaza estimates that total subscriber base for Globe and PLDT will reach 49 million by yearend or a 59 percent penetration rate.

The PLDT Group, which includes Smart Communications and Pilipino Telephone Inc. (Piltel), projects their share of total cellular service subscription to reach 29 to 30 million by the end of this year. As of Sept. 30, 2007, the group’s subscriber base stood at 28.3 million.

As of end-September this year, Globe (which includes Touch Mobile or TM) had a wireless SIM base Cellphone firms of 19.2 million. Ablaza said they expect to break the 20-million cellular subscriber mark by yearend.

It is also estimated that as of Sept. 30, 2007, Gokongwei-owned Sun Cellular had a cellular subscriber base of around three million.

Industry observers note that assuming PLDT and Globe achieve their yearend targets of 30 million and 20 million subscribers, respectively, and that Sun’s subscriber base remains the same at three million, or a national subscriber base of 53 million, the country mobile penetration rate will already exceed 60 percent by yearend.

A 65-percent penetration rate next year, or a five percent percentile increase, would mean four to five million new subscribers, assuming next year’s national population will reach 90 million.

It was observed that the disparity between the estimated yearend penetration rate and the industry figures could be attributed to the difference in national population figure being used.

Some industry officials say that next year’s national cellular penetration rate would be closer to 65 percent.

The cellular mobile telephone service (CMTS) sector, which currently includes Smart (Piltel), Globe, and Sun Cellular, is spending billions of pesos targeting the C and D segments of the population, focusing their marketing efforts in rural areas.

Their efforts likewise include encouraging existing mobile phone users to increase their phone service usage, in an effort to improve average revenue per user (ARPU).