RP posts trade surplus in July for third month in a row

The country posted a trade surplus in July, its third in a row, confirming a gradual recovery in the manufacturing sector, but with the US economy looking fragile, economists kept their optimism in check.

The National Statistics Office (NSO) reported yesterday that the trade surplus in July stood at $168 million, a sharp turnaroud from a deficit of $66 million in the same period last year.

Imports for July reached $3.023 billion, up 13.6 percent compared with the $2.66 billion a year earlier while exports surged 23 percent to $3.191 billion from last year’s $2.594 billion.

"My forecast for July was for $3 billion (imports) so it's within my expectations," said Jose Vistan, an economist at AB Capital Securities.

"It’s an indication of a continuation of the strong performance in manufacturing in July during the third quarter as imports in the month would be used for goods for export in August and September," he added.

The growth in imports serves as an indicator for exports going forward, as the country buys from abroad many of the parts needed to make its main export-electronic components.

In the first seven months of the year, the trade surplus rose 37.1 percent to $915 million against the $667 million surplus in the same period in 2001.

The Philippines sees exports growing around four percent in 2002, on the expected economic recovery of its main trading partner, the US. Exports fell 15 percent in 2001.

But some economists expressed caution. "It obviously proves that demand for imports was strong early in the second half. However, it may be that as the second half advances there could be a slowdown (in imports)," said Jan Lamregts, head of research for Asia/Pacific at Rabobank in Singapore.

Electronics remained the top import item in July, rising 65 percent to $777.63 million to account for 25.7 percent of total imports.

Imports of mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials accounted for 11.9 percent of total as payments for this sector rose 7.4 percent to $360.52 million.

Japan was the main source of imports for the month, accounting for 20.1 percent of the total.

Imports from Japan were up 14.4 percent year-on-year to $607.99 million, while exports were at $455.06 million, yielding a trade deficit for the country of $152.93 million.

The US ranked second, with imports accounting for 18.1 percent of the total at $546.94 million, against exports of $855.59 million, yielding a trade surplus for the Philippines at $308.65 million.