Nov inflation eases to 16-month low of 4.4%

The national inflation rate slowed to a 16-month low of 4.4 percent in November, giving monetary officials more room to ease monetary policy to perk up the economy, government economic officials said yesterday.

The National Statistics Office (NSO) said the figure was slightly lower than the 4.5-percent government had forecast and compared favorably with the 5.4-percent inflation rate in the previous month.

For the 11-month period, the average inflation rate was recorded at 6.3 percent.

Inflation has been dropping since it hit 6.8 percent in July as domestic demand weakened, food prices remained stable and the peso ended months of volatility in line with its export-sensitive Asian counterparts.

The government and the financial markets expect inflation to drop in December, falling as low as four percent during month and bringing the annual figure this at the low end of the government’s six-to seven-percent range.

Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Dante Canlas said the relative calm in commodity prices was due mainly to the stability in domestic food supply which ensured that prices would not be aggravated by disruptions in the supply chain.

"The relative stability of the agriculture sector has a lot to do with this," Canlas said. "But even if we had problems with domestic supply, we have liberalized imports to such an extent that it would not be a problem," he added.

Canlas said average inflation for the year was likely to be around six percent. "Very close to six. I think just slightly over six percent.. if we hit four in December, and I think we will," he said.

Some analysts, however, said the decline in inflation rate was in tandem with the slowing economy. They said it merely reflected slower economic activity and lower consumer demand.

Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Rafael B. Buenaventura said the lower-than-expected November inflation rate gave the bank room to cut the key rates further and also consider lowering commercial banks’ reserve requirement.

The government statistics office said the inflation rate in the National Capital Region (NCR) slid to 4.6 percent in November from 6.1 percent in October due to slower movements in prices of food, beverages and tobacco (FBT), fuel, light and water (FLW), services and miscellaneous items.

The growth in prices in areas outside of Metro Manila likewise slowed to 4.3 percent from 5.2 percent in October, also because in the slowdown in prices of all commodity groups.

"The sustained favorable weather condition ensured ample supply of fish which fueled a shift from pork consumption and subsequently brought livestock prices down," the NSO said.

Canlas said inflation rate will continue to decline for the rest of the year mainly because the year-on-year base figure was high. Last year, the inflation rate hovered at six to seven percent during the last quarter.

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