National Government sticks to 3.8% growth forecast

The National Government is standing pat on its gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast of 3.8 percent this year despite the scaled-down three-percent projection of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

"The pessimistic forecast of the IMF is unwarranted," Finance Secretary Alberto Romulo said yesterday, reacting to the assessment of IMF mission review chief Markus Rodlauer who led an IMF team that signed a post-program monitoring arrangement with the Philippine government.

Romulo said government is confident it can meet the targets set by the National Economic Development Authority (NEDA).

"Almost always, the NEDA projections are realized rather than the IMF projections," Romulo added, adding that with enough "hard work" the government’s projections can be met.

"While the first quarter was weak, we expect a pickup in the second quarter as economic activities are expected to grow," with the government providing the environment investors are looking for," Romulo said.

On the slowdown in exports, especially electronics, Romulo said government hopes to pick up the slack by finding new niche markets.

He said the downturn in the US and Japan, the country’s major trading partner is "temporary."

The IMF downscaled its growth forecast for the country, citing a weak first quarter and the ailing US and Japan, economies.

Rodlauer, who led the IMF team in setting up a framework for the country’s first post-program monitoring arrangement with the IMF, said that while confidence in government has been restored, the IMF had to be "cautious and conservative" in its forecast. – Rocel Felix