Government eyes 2.2%—3.7% GNP growth next year

Despite the current political crisis, the Estrada administration projects gross national product to grow at the rate of 2.2 percent to 3.7 percent in 2001, or slightly below the projected whole-year 4.2 percent to 4.7 percent GNP rate for 2000.

This forecast was made recently by Budget Secretary Benjamin Diokno when he released to the regular Newsmakers breakfast forum the economic projections for the whole of 2000 and 2001.

The growth rate for the gross domestic product (GDP) is expected at two to 3.5 percent for 2001, slightly lower than the whole year GDP rate of four to 4.5 percent for 2000.

Diokno said regardless of the impeachment trial going on, the economy will improve because businessmen are very pragmatic and would not want to antagonize any sitting President, so their operations will be back to normal.

Inflation for the whole year of 2000 will settle at six to 6.5 percent based on projections made by the Development Budget Coordinating Council as of Oct. 10 while projections for inflation in 2001 will be from six to eight.

Diokno said the forecast for the foreign exchange rate is at a low of P52 to $1 to a high of P47 for the year 2001, from the whole year 2000 projection of P44.50 to $1.

Exports for 2000 are expected to reach $40.57 billion, up by 15.8 percent from 1999 and this is projected to reach $42.34 billion in 2001, up by 10.9 percent over its projected level for 2000, Diokno said.

Imports would reach $32.279 billion in 2000, up by five percent over its level in 1999 but this will grow further to $33 billion in 2001, or an increase of 2.2 percent over the whole year projected imports for 2000, Diokno said.

The population growth rate will drop slightly from 2.18 percent (actual rate in 1999) to 2.14 percent in 2000 and this would drop further to 2.07 percent in 2001.