Rice imports to reach 400,000 MT this year

Rice imports for this year will reach at least 400,000 metric tons, after the National Food Authority (NFA) revealed plans of importing an additional minimum volume of 100,000 tons on top of the 300,000 tons already in the pipeline.

But if the country fails to meet its first semester palay production target, then more imported rice may have to be brought in depending on the extent of the supply shortfall.

NFA deputy administrator Gregorio Tan told The STAR that while they are still awaiting the results of the April palay production survey of the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics (BAS), the NFA is already doing its own scenario building.

Tan said that assuming that the 5.4 million palay production estimate for the January to June 2000 period is reached, the country will still be short by around 100,000 metric tons.

The BAS in its January survey projected palay output for the semester to reach 5.4 million tons or 2.4 percent more than that of the same period in 1999. January to March 2000 production is estimated at three million metric tons, or 0.8 percent lower than the previous year while April to June 2000 palay output is projected to hit 2.4 million tons, or 6.6 percent over that of last year.

The NFA has already brought in 59,000 metric tons of rice from the United States under the 1999 US Public Law 480 commodity loan program. Another 131,000 metric tons of rice will be coming in this month and next month as part of the Philippine government's import commitment to the World Trade Organization.

Government is also in the process of negotiating the purchase from Thailand of 100,000 metric tons of rice under a countertrade arrangement. Tan said both the NFA and the Philippine International Trading Corp. (PITC) are talking to Thailand on the matter. No decision has yet been reached as to what Philippine product to offer in exchange for Thai rice.

This brings to around 290,000 metric tons the volume of rice that will be imported by the NFA this year.

But Tan noted that NFA regional directors have different expectations of the first semester palay crop. He said that there are reports of a good harvest in Luzon while Mindanao reports reveal a large decline in harvest during the first quarter.

"If we shoot for a 90-day buffer stock level by July 1 of this year and assume that the 5.4 million metric ton palay production target for the first semester is reached, then we will be short by 100,000 tons. But there are early indications that the crop will be lower, so in that case, we may have to import more," Tan said.

He explained that since the Ramos administration, the country has maintained a 90-day buffer with the NFA maintaining 30 days as food security reserve.

Tan expects the April survey of the BAS to be released towards the end of the month. "Even if they decide by early May, we will still have time to bring in the additional rice imports before the onset of the lean months in July," he said.