Sara Duterte’s popularity myth

One of the myths about Vice President Sara Zimmerman Duterte is that she is a cinch for the presidency in May 2028.

The reality is far less predictable. As it happened not a few times in the past, instead of a resounding victory, the early and commanding frontrunner ended up in the dustbin of history, humiliated and defeated.  Most humbling of all, defeat is an orphan.

Duterte leads the survey of 2,400 adults for the May 2028 elections with 50 percent, followed by Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo, 26 percent and Sen. Raffy Tulfo, 12 percent, according to Pulse Asia Research’s Sept. 17 to 24, 2026 survey.

Sen. Bong Go, who is probably wanted by now by the International Criminal Court in The Hague, leads the vice presidential race with 31 percent, followed by Sen. Robin Padilla with 19 percent and Sen. Bam Aquino, 17 percent.

In the OCTA July 4-July 11, 2026 poll, Sara also led with 43 percent; Leni Robredo second, 34 percent.

In past presidential elections, the early frontrunners, like Sara is now, did not end up being president when the actual votes were counted.

In 1991, House Speaker Ramon V. Mitra Jr. was already recruiting members of his Cabinet. He wanted me as his press secretary. He had just won the ruling LDP convention where he trounced every rival decisively, including then armed forces boss Fidel V. Ramos. Mitra also had the solid backing of most of the congressmen. He spoke Ilocano, the lingua franca of the Solid North whose loyalty to one of their own is 85 percent during elections. Monching also had Visayas roots, having been born in Palawan, a large part of which straddles the Visayas. Tall, bearded, looking macho, Monching had the look and feel of a rags-to-success poor boy born out of wedlock to a poor labandera.

When the 1998 votes were counted, FVR won with 23.58 percent or 5.342 million votes, edging out Miriam Defensor Santiago, 19.72 percent (4.468 million votes); Danding Cojuangco, 18.17 percent (4.116 million); Mitra, 14.64 percent (3.316 million), Imelda Marcos, 10.32 percent (2.338 million) and Jovito Salonga, 10.16 percent (2.3 million votes).

Tycoon Danding would have won had Imelda not run. They split the Ilocano vote that Mitra was banking on to be the president. Retired general, the Protestant FVR is the only president in Philippine history to have won the presidency despite losing in all the military camps, in the 50 biggest cities and all the major provinces. In elections, there is such a thing as himala (miracle).

In 2004, incumbent Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo was not expected to win the presidency in her own right. She was not popular among the masses enthralled with movie idols – the ousted Joseph Estrada and the action king Fernando Poe Jr.  Moviedom’s greatest names, Erap and FPJ, were ranged against the diminutive former economics professor whose only capital was guts and a decent Macapagal record as president.

GMA scored a squeaker, winning with 39.99 percent of the vote or 12.905 million. FPJ fell short with 36.51 percent or 11.783 million votes. Again, in politics and in show business, may himala (miracle).

The 2010 presidential elections were hotly contested. An early leader was Manuel B. Villar Jr., the first Filipino brown billionaire. Manny was banking on his track record as a fish vendor’s son who became rich through dint of hard work and diligence. Sipag at tiyaga as they say in Tagalog. Backed by businesses big and small, MBV wanted to consolidate the economic gains of the economist president Arroyo. Using his own amazing entrepreneurship story, he could enable a boom in SMEs, the building block of sustainable growth and employment. He knew political management first hand, having been both a House speaker and a Senate president, a rare feat.

When the 2010 votes were counted, Villar languished in No. 3, with 5.573 million or 15.42 percent. A come-from-behind B.S. “Noynoy” Aquino III grabbed the presidency with 15.2 million votes, 42.08 percent. A distant second was come-backing  Joseph Estrada, with 9.48 million votes or 26.25 percent.

In the 2010 presidential elections, may multo (ghost). Cory Aquino died on Aug. 1, 2009, nine months before the May 2010 elections. A grief-stricken nation voted her son.

Before the 2016 presidential elections, vice president Jejomar Binay was leading pre-election surveys. Cocky, Jojo began recruiting advisers as future Cabinet members. He attended briefings overseas by various think tanks to prepare him for the geopolitics of the 21st century. Jojo’s image was that of a quiet but diligent worker who piled up his gravitas as a human rights lawyer and protector of Cory (I mean, democracy) by being the first in Malacañang, in combat uniform, when there was a coup (there were nine coups against Cory).

When the 2016 votes were counted, a virtual unknown (outside his native Davao), Dirty Digong Rodrigo Roa Duterte had snatched the presidency with 16.6 million votes or 39 percent, trouncing the Liberal Party’s Mar Roxas who got 9.978 million votes or 23.45 percent and the bearer of the FPJ name, Grace Poe, 9.1 million votes or 21.39 percent. Once frontrunner Binay ended up No. 4, a cellar dweller, with 5.4 million votes or 12.73 percent.

Back to OCTA’s July 2026 survey. The polling firm clarifies:

1. Duterte still leads nationally, but the gap has narrowed to nine points.

2. At the national level, the narrowing is small enough to sit within the survey’s margin of error.

3. The more statistically robust movement is regional – especially in NCR.

4. Robredo’s gains are real but localized.

5. Geographic and generational polarization remains structurally unchanged.

6. This is an early benchmark, not a forecast.

Finally, for me, Sara’s strength is tribal. More than 90 percent of Mindanao voters want her as their president.

As in past elections, Metro Manila and balance Luzon will decide the 2028 presidency.

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