The future of Asia and the Pacific depends on whether young people have reason to hope

Some countries are grappling with declining fertility rates and rapidly ageing populations. Others are seeking to harness the potential of large youth populations. Across the region, governments are asking how demographic shifts will affect economic growth, labor markets, health care systems and social protection.

These are important questions. But they often begin in the wrong place.

The future of Asia and the Pacific will not be determined simply by fertility rates, population projections or age structures. It will be shaped by something more fundamental: whether young people have reason to hope.

Too often, public discussions about demographic change focus on numbers rather than people. Yet behind every statistic is a deeply personal decision: whether to pursue further education, whether to enter a relationship, whether to have children, whether to remain in a community or seek opportunities elsewhere. These decisions are shaped not only by individual preferences, but by the opportunities and constraints that young people encounter in their daily lives.

New evidence from UNFPA’s Demographic Futures Survey, one of the largest studies of its kind, challenges some of the assumptions that frequently dominate public debates. Far from turning away from partnership, parenthood or family life, most young people continue to value and aspire to them. Many still see marriage and children as part of the future they hope to build. What they increasingly question is whether that future is within reach.

Young people consistently identify financial security, stable employment and a sense of readiness as among the most important conditions for starting a family. Yet across much of Asia and the Pacific, these foundations are becoming harder to secure. Rising living costs, housing insecurity, economic uncertainty and widening inequalities are making it increasingly difficult for many young people to build the futures they aspire to.

For many, the challenge is not choosing between career and family, but having a genuine opportunity to pursue both. And young people’s realities are far from uniform. While some struggle to balance work and family aspirations, others are denied meaningful choice altogether, constrained by poverty, discrimination and harmful social norms or practices. Young women continue to shoulder a disproportionate share of unpaid care responsibilities, while unequal access to safe, decent work leaves many more vulnerable to exploitation, violence and economic insecurity.

Expanding choice therefore requires more than encouraging individual decisions. It requires policies and investments that enable every young person to determine their own future with dignity, safety and equal opportunity.

Climate change adds another layer of uncertainty. Across Asia and the Pacific, young people are coming of age in a region increasingly affected by extreme weather events, environmental degradation and climate-related displacement. Their concerns about the future extend beyond economics. They are also asking what kind of world they will inherit and what opportunities it will offer.

These concerns matter because hope is not simply an emotion but the very foundation of resilient societies. People are more likely to invest in their futures when they believe those futures are attainable. Communities are stronger when young people can see opportunities to learn, work, contribute and thrive. Societies are more resilient when young people feel confident that progress is possible.

Hope does not emerge by chance but is built through policies and investments that expand opportunity and strengthen security. It is built through quality education, decent work, affordable housing, accessible health care, robust social protection and meaningful action on gender equality. It is reinforced when young people can exercise their rights, participate in decisions that affect their lives and trust that institutions are working in their interests.

This is why healthy populations cannot be achieved through attempts to engineer outcomes. They cannot be built by limiting rights or pressuring people to make deeply personal choices. Sustainable responses to demographic change begin by understanding the realities young people face and creating the conditions that enable them to flourish.

On this World Population Day, we should remember that demographic futures are not predetermined. They are shaped by the choices societies make today. If we want resilient economies, thriving communities and sustainable development tomorrow, we must ensure that young people have more than aspirations. We must ensure they have reason to hope.

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Aleksandar Bodiroza is the regional director for Asia and the Pacific ad interim of the United Nations Population Fund.