Miscalculated political outcomes

The recent political developments in the Philippines are not only getting more interesting with heavier social implications, but are also giving the Filipino people the perceptions/realizations of how much politicians prioritize their self-interest to achieve their ends. The saving grace is that in many instances, the political/social outcomes that the politicians expected, are not always the results that favor them.

The surfacing of Sen. Dela Rosa after months of absence to vote for the Senate re-organization, seem like a master stroke to install Cayetano as Senate president and make a pro-Duterte Senate majority. The shooting, commotion/chaos and the Dela Rosa escape did not really follow a script and created a backlash of public opinion. It caused more problems, and not a “fait accompli” solution, as the narratives were incredible to the public.

Moreover, senators in the new majority have tainted reputations and track records. Estrada, Villanueva, and Escudero are implicated in the flood-control projects scandal, the Villars and Legarda on questionable business practices, Marcoleta in an election offense, and Padilla for plain incompetence, so the group does not really inspire public confidence. Adding this burden to their obvious pro-Duterte plan to delay/sabotage the impeachment of VP Sara Duterte, thwarted their expected political outcomes.

Going over the coverage in the main and social media, there was 70% unfavorable news, posts, and comments against the Cayetano group, even if we include the obvious trolls and biased media practitioners from the Duterte and BBM sides. It is actually difficult to come up with a positive spin for the Cayetano/Duterte side as their actions were against the law, and the political actions against the impeachment were quite obvious. This 70% against the Cayetano group is really just a validation of the 69% pro-impeachment public opinion poll conducted last year and in March this year.

It seems that the Duterte group does not really have an overall orchestrated political strategy. They are making disparate moves that they believe to be to their advantage without anticipating total effects, and disregarding unintended consequences. This could be an organizational structure problem, leadership issue, inability to visualize the complete scenarios, inability to focus on the objectives, or all of the above.

On the other side, the anti-Duterte factions, which are not really a cohesive whole, but composed of youth/students activists, the religious, the civil society, moderate leftists, Duterte victims, BBM supporters, ethical businessmen and politicians, are increasing and solidifying as the moral dimensions of the controversy and fight are all in their favor. They see the moves and actions of the pro-Duterte senators and allies as illegal, unethical, and immoral. The burden of the arrest of former president Duterte and his detention in The Hague, the revelations in the VP impeachment hearings in Congress, and the shenanigans of the pro-Duterte politicians during his presidential term cannot be easily swept under the rug.

These political dramas are continuing with the possible arrest of some of the pro-Duterte senators. They cannot claim a believable persecution by the BBM administration, as the basis of their prosecution and arrests are/will be clearly laid down by the Ombudsman and the Department of Justice. Adverse public opinion and sympathy for the arrested senators will be negligible, putting pressure on the BBM government to implement the law, which they have to do to friends and foes similarly to maintain credibility.