Philippines likely to lower export targets

MANILA, Philippines — After setting ambitious export targets, the Philippines is seen backpedaling and revising its goals downward next year, possibly extending through the remainder of President Marcos’ term.

The Export Development Council (EDC), composed of the government and the private sector, is set to convene as early as next month to establish the country’s export goals for 2025 to 2028, according to the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI).

Although the revised target is still being finalized, DTI Export Marketing Bureau director Bianca Sykimte said it would “definitely (be) lower” than the original figures outlined in the Philippine Export Development Plan.

Under the PEDP, the country’s total exports covering goods and services are expected to reach $163.6 billion in 2025, $186.7 billion in 2026, $212.1 billion in 2027 and $240.5 billion in 2028.

Discussions regarding the revision of PEDP targets follow projections that the Philippines will miss its export goals for the second straight year under the Marcos administration.

This year, the PEDP outlines a target of $143.4 billion for total exports.

However, latest DTI data showed that merchandise exports from January to October only marginally grew to $61.8 billion from $61.6 billion in the same period last year.

The flat performance, Sykimte noted, was driven by the $2.8 billion decline in semiconductor exports, which offset robust contributions from key export products.

“Basically, most of our key export products grew at double-digit rates. Unfortunately, because 40 percent of our exports are semiconductors, their performance overshadowed the gains from other products,” she said.

Services exports, on the other hand, improved to $37.4 billion as of end-September from the $35.2 billion reported in 2023 on the back of strong gains from travel services and the IT and business process management sectors.

While the country is likely to fall short of this year’s PEDP target, Trade Undersecretary Ceferino Rodolfo said the government is upbeat on achieving the $107 billion export goal set under the Philippine Development Plan (PDP).

“We’re confident that once the (data) for the last quarter of this year comes in for merchandise goods and services, we will meet the targets under the PDP,” Rodolfo said.

“So, if recalibration is conducted, although we don’t want to preempt it, it will be the PEDP target moving forward for 2025 until 2028,” he added.

Last year, the country’s total exports hit a record high of $103.6 billion, although still way below the $126.8 billion PEDP target.

The PEDP was developed by the country’s exporting community under the leadership of the EDC, with supervision from the DTI, and in partnership with key government agencies and the Philippine Exporters Confederation Inc.