The Visayan Electric Company, which owns the franchise for much of the Metro Cebu area, has put people on notice that the power situation will get worse before it gets better, which is a way of saying that if we are experiencing rotating brownouts now, we should expect more in the coming year.
This is because the Tongonan geothermal plant in Leyte, which generates more than 600 megawatts of power, of which roughly 400 megawatts are plowed into the Visayas grid, will take anywhere between eight months to more than a year to kick back into service after having been incapacitated by supertyphoon Yolanda.
Without the roughly 400 megawatts from Tongonan, the rest of the Visayas grid (Cebu, Negros, Panay and Bohol) is short by nearly 200 megawatts, and have to rely mainly on a number of coal-fired and diesel power plants, hence the rotating brownouts.
But these rotating brownouts are somewhat tolerable because they usually last no more than an hour, the power situation being aided by an agreement Veco has entered into with big businesses that produce their own power like SM and San Miguel.
This agreement on "interruptable power" involves a deal in which, during peak hours, or when the power situation is short, these companies will run their own generators instead of tapping and eating into Veco's supply. In exchange, Veco will pay them more than what they would normally be paying Veco.
But Veco warns that even this will not be enough going into the new year, when the power crunch will be most felt. So what is being expected in 2014 that Veco feels will severely affect the power situation and make things even worse than what they already are.
Here is Veco's explanation: Tongonan is as good as out for the whole of 2014. That means the Visayas grid will not be seeing its 400 megawatts for that period. If the Visayas grid suffers only close to a 200 mw shortage at present even without Tongonan's 400 mw, it is only because most of the Visayas is still devastated.
Many areas in Bohol, in Negros, in Panay, and even in northern Cebu are not yet back on line. Veco fears that once these areas get fully rehabilitated, their downed power lines get back on line, they will start eating into the existing supply that is already short of nearly 200 mw.
That is the problem we face in the coming year, as far as the power situation is concerned. Without the 400 mw from Tongonan, and the surplus that such power creates for the rest of the Visayas grid, we are indeed in dire straits and can expect longer and more frequent brownouts. Especially in summer, when demand peaks.