A reality check on the MMS fever

In my last article, I had shared with you the current wireless mobile data statistics on "texting" or SMS and how the Philippines is the leader, generating at least 20 percent of daily SMS global volume or about 120 million messages. As brand-new handset prices continue to fall, the second-hand mobile phone market further expanding and the youth market continuing its fast adoption, expect our current 11 million mobile subscriber base to swell to at least 14 million by year’s end.

According to a recent Merill Lynch research study, the continued affordability of the SMS service, the release of more practical and innovative applications and the launch of a newer enhanced SMS technology called MMS which is scheduled to make its debut this year are supposed to power the continued rapid growth of SMS messaging, too. All this mentioned forecasts I trust, but what about this MMS? Will this be another WAP (wireless access protocol) type of hype that never delivered? WAP sounded all so good on paper at first, but it never really took off because of various reasons ranging from infrastructure limitations, unavailability of handsets and expensive service costs. Will it be the same with MMS?

MMS, or short for multi-media messaging, is aimed to provide you photos and video clips with sound through your mobile phone. Let us say you are in Boracay with your friends and you want to send a group picture to your family in Manila, you just grab your handy-dandy next-generation mobile phone with web-cam, snap a shot like you do with any normal idiot camera and "text" it to your father’s mobile phone or even to another friend’s computer across the world. Wow, just like that! Sounds all so neat and cool, right? It’s reminiscent, though, of the time I heard WAP was going to allow me to trade the local stock market from my mobile phone while basking at the beach. It’s three years later and I have yet to do that.

In the last six months I have just heard so much hype from Nokia, Ericsson and other infra developers on how MMS is going to be what SMS is now to our existing 2G network. In the just concluded GSM conference in Cannes, France, Dr. Bernd Eylert, chairman of the UMTS forum, predicted that MMS revenues could reach $15 billion by 2006 and could go as high as $40 billion by 2010. In the midst of all this prophecies, I now see most developers and mobile carriers gearing up for this mad rush. Please pardon my cynicism; I am just saying this will be great if it does become a reality very soon. But I just want to manage people’s overzealous expectations of this new MMS technology so as MMS does not lose its luster.

To start with, we will have to enable most of our circle of friends and family to upgrade their current mobile handsets to models that can accommodate this MMS technology. It would not be fully beneficial if only my mobile phone had this feature. Of lately, I have seen only the Ericsson T68 that’s capable of this. Even Nokia’s slews of new models do not have this capability just yet. Of course, affordability for the new units will dictate the pace of upgrading. In the Philippines, it was only when mobile phone cost broke the P8,000 mark did growth really take off.

Another thing, are we not assuming too much that just because SMS or texting took off, that this advanced form of SMS would do the same? My belief is that simplicity, speed and affordability were the key drivers to our current SMS’s great success. I do not see MMS being as uncomplicated as SMS anytime soon. The biggest problem I really see, though, would be our networks that would have to support MMS. MMS demands a fast network. This means lots of bandwidth to have a photo download from a wireless network. If you currently get impatient downloading that photo attachment from your email, try to imagine doing it from your mobile phone. Also, if normal texting congests our current matured GSM network, what more on a new 2.5G or 3G network for MMS?

MMS will surely make great progress for the mobile Internet, but without the circumstances above being understood by its market, it may just leave the same sour impression that WAP left behind. Let’s contain then our MMS excitement for just a little while longer.

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A cool and practical mobile directory service called Globe Alumni was just recently launched. It’s similar to a telephone directory service, but instead it carries the mobile phone numbers of its registered users. Have you ever gotten that impulse to reconnect with your old schoolmate and did not know where to begin your search? It’s a great service that can be utilized anytime and anywhere. Privacy is still kept, though, as the application actually makes a request for your permission before it releases your mobile number to the searcher. So be ready to convince that old schoolmate via an anonymous text message that you are really that kind seatmate who used to make him copy during Algebra class.

Send "Alumni" to 2343 from your Globe mobile phone and check out the service. I believe connectivity with other mobile carriers will be available soon.

Note: Author Patrick R. Garcia is managing director of Bidshot Wireless Services. For comments or suggestions, text your message to 233011(Globe) and 243011(Smart) or e-mail [email protected]