Avoiding the play-in

The NBA regular season ends on April 14, meaning only 20 days are left to determine which teams from the East and West will figure in the dreaded play-in tournament. When the curtains fall to close each team’s 82-game campaign, the top six teams in the East and West advance to the playoffs outright. Teams ranked No. 7 to No. 10 will battle for the two remaining playoff slots in both conferences.

The format is particularly tough on Nos. 9 and 10. But they can’t complain. Without the play-in system, they’ll be automatically out of the playoffs. But with the play-in system, they stand a chance, although slim, to make it. In the format, No. 9 will play No. 10 with the loser booted out of contention. In effect, it’s a knockout game which is what fans love because of the do-or-die scenario. The winner of No. 9 against No. 10 will play the loser of the No. 7 against No. 8 clash for the No. 8 playoff slot. The winner of No. 7 against No. 8 qualifies for the playoffs as No. 7. At the end of the regular season, No. 7 gains a twice-to-beat advantage in the play-in, something that the NBA could’ve picked up from the PBA.

Because of the scary implications, no team wants to be in a knockout game. If the regular season ended today, the rankings in the East would be No. 1 Boston, No. 2 Milwaukee, No. 3 Cleveland, No. 4 New York, No. 5 Orlando, No. 6 Indiana, No. 7 Miami, No. 8 Philadelphia, No. 9 Chicago and No. 10 Atlanta. The hottest East teams are the Celtics, 9-1 in their last 10 games and New York and Orlando, 7-3 in their last 10. In the West, the standings would be No. 1 Denver, No. 2 Oklahoma City, No. 3 Minnesota, No. 4 LA Clippers, No. 5 New Orleans, No. 6 Phoenix, No. 7 Sacramento, No. 8 Dallas, No. 9 LA Lakers and No. 10 Golden State. Coming on strong is No. 11 Houston, 9-1 in their last 10.

The Warriors are battling to survive. They’re 2.5 games behind the Lakers and in danger of slipping out of the play-in with the Rockets on the rise. Golden State’s small ball is only as effective as Draymond Green is relevant. The Lakers are coming off a monster 150-145 win over Indiana and looking like a serious threat to No. 1 if they clinch No. 8 in the first round of the playoffs.

In the East, Boston is a lock to capture homecourt advantage throughout the playoffs. Miami has an outside chance to move up to the top six but if the Heat doesn’t, it should take care of Philadelphia in the play-in assuming they match up. Atlanta could pull the rug from under the Bulls and upset the Sixers for the No. 8 ticket if Joel Embiid isn’t able to rejoin coach Nick Nurse’s troops.

The play-ins finish on April 19 and the first round of the playoffs starts the next day. The conference semifinals may begin on May 4-5 or 6-7 depending on the duration of the first round. The conference finals commence on May 19-20 or May 21-22, once more depending on how long the semifinals last. No matter the length of the previous series, the NBA Finals will start June 6 and if there’s a Game Seven, it will be on June 23.