Roach gives Pacman 90 percent to prevail

While the odds remain stacked on Oscar de la Hoya’s side, Freddie Roach believes Manny Pacquiao will win in their Dec. 6 showdown at the MGM Grand Garden in Las Vegas.

In fact, the noted American trainer has given his ward a 90 percent chance to prevail over the bigger, heftier former Olympic champion.

“On my side, I think we have a 90 percent shot to win the fight,” said Roach in an interview with GMANews.tv. “That’s a high number but I want to give Oscar a little credit because he’s been there before.”

Roach isn’t bothered by De la Hoya’s four-inch height advantage, saying the size difference isn’t going to be that great in a duel between the world’s best pound-for-pound boxer and the 10-time world champion.

“If that’s the only advantage Oscar has, he’s in trouble,” said Roach, who handled De la Hoya in his losing stand against Floyd Mayweather last year.

To back up his claim, Roach pointed out that at 35, De la Hoya would be too old to mix it up with a fighter who is at his prime and he would be sluggish from straining his body down to 147 pounds.

“For Oscar to get down close to welterweight early in his camp and then try to maintain it all the way to the fight is a mistake because at his age and with his size, he’s going to struggle every day for two months,” Roach said.

For Roach, a good, fast fighter wins. Speed kills, he stressed, and that’s the way how he feels about the upcoming fight.

“I admit that at welterweight, Manny’s power is better than his speed. His quickness was a little less at lightweight and it will be a little less than that at 147, but he’s still faster than most fighters; he’s still very effective at 147 pounds. Anything over 147 and I think he’d be a little sluggish,” he said.

“For the people who don’t think Manny can win this fight, they’re welcome to say their opinion. For the people who say that it’s a mismatch or that the fight shouldn’t happen, they’re crazy because they have no knowledge of this game.

“Because if you look at the history of boxing, when the older fighter comes down in weight, he loses,” said Roach, citing Terry Norris’s win over Sugar Ray Leonard in 1991 when the latter came down in weight and the former beat him.

“Oscar is older and he’s fought less than four times in the last four years. So, it’s a perfect opportunity for us,” Roach said.

What worries Roach is not De la Hoya’s height, reach and heft advantages, but his dreaded left hook.

“There’s a 10-percent chance I’m giving Oscar to win because he has a good left hook. I got to give him that credit,” said Roach. “He has knockout power in his left hook. That’s his best shot and it’s my biggest concern.”  – Dante Navarro