Defending champion Miami returns with a virtually intact lineup that is older, slower and less hungry. Coach Pat Riley decided to give it a shot at two in a row but isn’t likely to succeed even if Dwyane Wade is now being hailed as the second coming of Michael Jordan with due apologies to Kobe Bryant and LeBron James.
Shaquille O’Neal, Alonzo Mourning, Antoine Walker, Jason Williams, Gary Payton and Shandon Anderson are all in their 30s. If Miami’s future is in the hands of former Red Bull import Earl Barron, Jason Kapono, Udonis Haslem and James Posey acting as Wade’s choir boys, the Heat is in big trouble.
Riley is obviously not thinking long-term because he doesn’t figure to coach many more years. He’s looking at the dividends he can reap here and now without thinking of what’s next. O’Neal, Mourning and the rest of the aging cast are right on Riley’s wavelength. If it ain’t broke, why fix it, they chorus.
Last year’s losing finalist Dallas, in contrast, made dramatic lineup changes in the offseason to retool and regroup. Coach Avery Johnson got a vote of confidence from owner Mark Cuban with a contract extension and is hoping the Mavericks get the job done this time.
Dallas was two wins short of clinching the NBA title last season and came tantalizingly close to cooling the Heat in the Finals.
Gone from the Mavs roster are Darrell Armstrong, Adrian Griffin, Marquis Daniels and Josh Powell. Devean George, Austin Croshere, Greg Buckner and Anthony Johnson were recruited as veteran backups for the nucleus of Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Terry, Jerry Stackhouse, Devin Harris and Josh Howard.
Slam Magazine picked Miami and Dallas to advance to the Last Dance for the second straight year with the Mavs winding up on top.
"Dallas will be much improved with their experience," said Slam’s Lang Whitaker. "The key players have now been to the Promised Land as has Avery Johnson. This season, they’ll make it again and this time around, they’ll bring back the one thing money can’t buy — history."
Slam’s picks to top their divisions in the regular season were New Jersey in the Atlantic, Detroit in the Central, Miami in the Southeast, Denver in the Northwest, Dallas in the Southwest and Phoenix in the Pacific.
Sports Illustrated ruled out a Dallas return to the Finals and predicted Phoenix to win the title with Miami the loser in the title playoffs. In the Eastern Conference Finals, the weekly magazine chose Miami over New Jersey and in the West, it was Phoenix over Dallas. The choices to lead their divisions were New Jersey in the Atlantic, Cleveland in the Central, Miami in the Southeast, Utah in the Northwest, Dallas in the Southwest and Phoenix in the Pacific.
Player and coaching movements make for an unpredictable season. With so many shifts and a gruelling 82-game grind, anything can happen until the regular season ends on April 18.
Three new head coaches are in the spotlight. Don Nelson returns to Golden State in Mike Montgomery’s place. Isaiah Thomas bumped off Larry Brown at the New York helm and Eric Musselman took over from Rick Adelman at Sacramento.
Coaches in line to lose jobs in midstream include Milwaukee’s Terry Stotts, Toronto’s Sam Mitchell, Atlanta’s Mike Woodson, Portland’s Nate McMillan and New Orleans/Oklahoma’s Byron Scott unless they drastically reverse their fortunes.
Major player transfers involved Shane Battier to Houston, Sebastian Telfair and Theo Ratliff to Boston, Peja Stojakovic to New Orleans/Oklahoma, Tim Thomas to the Los Angeles Clippers, J. R. Smith to Denver, Derek Fisher to Utah, Speedy Claxton to Atlanta, T. J. Ford and Rasho Nesterovic to Toronto, Ben Wallace and P. J. Brown to Chicago, David Wesley to Cleveland, Flip Murray and Nazr Mohammed to Detroit, Al Harrington to Indiana and Charlie Villanueva to Milwaukee.
If Miami and Phoenix are favored to battle in the Finals, darkhorse contenders are New Jersey and Detroit with Chicago as the sleeper in the East and San Antonio and Denver with Houston as the sleeper in the West.
The Nets should crowd Miami in the race to the top of the Eastern pile. Jason Kidd, Vince Carter and Richard Jefferson are a formidable threesome and center Nenad Krstic can only get better. Whether they’ll be healthy the entire stretch is a question mark.
The Pistons were eliminated by Miami in six in last year’s playoffs and coach Flip Saunders is ready to bring the Motor City squad back to the top with Rasheed Wallace, Rip Hamilton and Chauncey Billups. The Bulls might just steal the thunder from the favorites with Wallace, Kirk Hinrich, Brown, Ben Gordon and Luol Deng in the trenches.
Orlando is a long shot but if Dwight Howard lives up to his billing as the next David Robinson and Grant Hill is healthy for 82 games, coach Brian Hill might be in luck.
The Spurs are still a force to reckon with even as Tim Duncan’s numbers aren’t as awesome as before. Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker and Michael Finley are back but coach Gregg Popovich’s problem is the hole in the middle because Francisco Elson just isn’t the answer.
Carmelo Anthony makes the Nuggets a legitimate title threat. If only Kenyon Martin’s head is in place, coach George Karl could take Denver to a rocky mountain high. Houston is a sleeping giant with Tracy McGrady, Yao Ming, Battier, Bonzi Wells and Vassilis Spanoulis in the mix.
As for the rookies, it doesn’t look like anyone will shake up the league like LeBron did in his first year when he averaged 20.9 points in 2003-04. Top draft pick 7-foot Andrea Bargnani isn’t likely to impress in Toronto which is parading a slew of foreigners, including 6-8 Jorge Garbajosa and 6-3 Jose Calderon of Spain, 7-0 Nesterovic and 6-10 Uros Slokar of Slovenia and 6-10 Pape Sow of Senegal. No. 2 pick 6-11 Lamarcus Aldridge will at least get playing time at Portland as will another freshman 6-6 Brandon Roy. 6-8 Adam Morrison, the third overall choice, is forecast to become a designated three-point gunner in the Steve Kerr mold at Charlotte whose new managing member of basketball operations is Michael Jordan.
Other rookies to watch are 6-4 Randy Foye of Minneosta, 6-9 Rudy Gay of Memphis, 6-9 Shelden Williams of Atlanta and 6-9 Tyrus Thomas of Chicago.
The NBA season kicks off with a back-to-back treat, live on Solar’s BTV channel starting at 9a.m. today with Chicago facing Miami and Phoenix meeting the Los Angeles Lakers. The Chicago-Miami game will be replayed at 6 tonight and the Phoenix-Lakers contest at 9:30.