Destination NBA Finals

The road to the National Basketball Association (NBA) Finals won’t be easy. Teams are hungry and the competition is extremely balanced. Even the eighth-seeds in the East and West are serious title contenders. None of the first-round playoff series is expected to be a cakewalk.

Before the regular season started, I had the audacity of opening my mouth and predicted Minnesota to win it all. So much for crystal-ball gazing. I was lucky to pick Detroit to capture the crown even before the playoffs began last year. But I wasn’t as lucky this season. I should’ve known better than to trust old dogs Sam Cassell and Latrell Sprewell. Kevin Garnett’s heroics weren’t enough to lift the Timberwolves back to the playoffs and poor coach Flip Saunders was the scapegoat.

In the East, the first-round playoff pairings are No. 1 Miami (59-23) vs No. 8 New Jersey (42-40), No. 2 Detroit (54-28) vs No. 7 Philadelphia (43-39), No. 3 Boston (45-37) vs No. 6 Indiana (44-38) and No. 4 Chicago (47-35) vs No. 5 Washington (45-37).

The probability is Miami will face Detroit for the right to represent the East in the Finals.

Alaska import Dickey Simpkins, who has three NBA title rings as a Chicago Bull in his collection (although he was on Phil Jackson’s playoff roster only in 1998), said if Miami survives the Pistons, the Heat will bag the Larry O’Brien trophy.

"Shaq (O’Neal) makes a big difference," said Simpkins, referring to Miami’s prized center. "And that kid (Dwyane) Wade is some kind of player. But Miami’s got to get past Detroit in the East. The Pistons are a defensive team. The guys know their roles. It’s a toss-up between Miami and Detroit in the East. In the West, San Antonio is a solid team and they’ve been there before. Phoenix, Houston and Dallas are the other West teams that could make it to the Finals."

The first-round playoff pairings in the West are No. 1 Phoenix (62-20) vs No. 8 Memphis (45-37), No. 2 San Antonio (59-23) vs No. 7 Denver (49-33), No. 3 Seattle (52-30) vs No. 6 Sacramento (50-32) and No. 4 Dallas (58-24) vs No. 5 Houston (51-31).

Among the teams that failed to advance were the Cleveland Cavaliers, New York Knicks, Minnesota, Los Angeles Lakers, Portland Trail Blazers and Utah Jazz.

Detroit closed out the regular season with an 11-1 kick. Coach Larry Brown returns the nucleus of last year’s championship squad and the Pistons look better than ever. Ben and Rasheed Wallace, Rip Hamilton, Chauncey Billups, Tayshaun Prince, Lindsey Hunter and Elden Campbell are back. Added to the roster were 2000 Sydney Olympian Antonio McDyess, Ronald Dupree and Carlos Arroyo to replace Memo Okur, Corliss Williamson and Mike James.

Miami compiled winning streaks of 14, 12 and seven games during the regular season. The Heat finished with a 3-0 surge after losing four in a row. Coach Stan Van Gundy’s lineup lists O’Neal, Wade, Damon Jones, Eddie Jones, Alonzo Mourning, Udonis Haslem, Shandon Anderson, Christian Laettner and Michael Doleac.

The Heat should roll over New Jersey without a sweat. Miami crushed the Nets in their three regular season meetings, 100-77, 106-90 and 90-65. Jason Kidd and Vince Carter played for New Jersey in the last two blowouts.

San Antonio lost three of its last four outings entering the playoffs. The Spurs’ fate depends on Tim Duncan’s health. If his bothersome right ankle is fine, it should be smooth sailing for San Antonio in the first round.

The Spurs’ first round opponent is Denver whose record after the All-Star break was an impressive 25-4. Incidentally, three of those four defeats were dealt by Phoenix. The Nuggets are enjoying a resurgence with new coach George Karl. Still, the Spurs appear too tough to beat with the likes of Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, Glenn (Big Dog) Robinson, Nazr Mohammed, Rasho Nesterovic, Robert Horry, Brent Barry and Bruce Bowen.

With Duncan on the floor, the Spurs whipped Denver twice, 116-94 and 128-123 in overtime, in the regular season. Without Duncan, they were upset by the Nuggets who won, 90-87 and 102-84.

Phoenix earned the homecourt advantage throughout the playoffs because of its league-leading record. The incredible thing is the Suns improved their showing by 33 more wins from last year. Coach Mike D’Antoni has done a remarkable job in transforming the Suns into a worthy title challenger.

Heading the Phoenix roster are Steve Nash, Amare Stoudemire, Shawn Marion, Joe Johnson, Jimmy Jackson, Quentin Richardson, Bo Outlaw and Walter McCarty.

The Suns aren’t as deep as the Spurs. That was evident in their three regular season encounters where San Antonio won twice, 116-94 and 128-123 in overtime, and lost a 107-101 decision.

What are the chances of a major upset this year? Not much. Only once in NBA history has an eighth-seed barged into the Finals. That was when the Knicks defied the stiffest odds to play San Antonio only to lose in five games in 1999.

The biggest upset in playoff history was sixth-seed Houston sweeping Orlando to pocket the championship in 1995.

The way I see it, Detroit will beat Miami in the Eastern Conference Finals and San Antonio will defeat Phoenix in the Western Conference Finals to set up a showdown for the crown jewels. The Pistons will go on to clinch their second straight championship.