The bottom line — Manny by KO

When Manny Pacquiao steps into the ring to face Erik Morales in Las Vegas this morning (Manila time), the entire Filipino nation will be at a standstill.

You won’t see too many people in the streets. You won’t see too many people in the malls.

Millions will be glued to their TV sets watching every second of what could be the defining fight for Pacquiao. No Filipino has ever fought for a $1 Million purse until Pacquiao came along. No Filipino has inched within a whisker of becoming the first Asian to win world titles in three different divisions until Pacquiao came along. No Filipino has mesmerized the discriminating world boxing audience as convincingly until Pacquiao came along.

He has been described as a national treasure, a symbol of Filipino greatness, a unifying force in the fractious Filipino society.

The pressure for Pacquiao to win is unimaginable. Here is a 26-year-old fighter on whose shoulders rests the burden of putting the Philippines on the world map.

Pacquiao, 26, has certainly come a long way since he rode a slow boat from General Santos City, where he was born, to Manila hoping to find fame and fortune in the big city when he was only 15. The kid, who left schools in Grade 6 to pursue a career in boxing, has grown up to become the hope and inspiration of millions of Filipinos striving for a better life.

Against Morales, Pacquiao will be put to a test. Morales is more experienced, has a five-inch reach advantage and has never been knocked out. The Mexican is in the crossroads of his long career. A defeat could bring down the curtains to Morales’ fistic profession. That’s why he’s determined to bounce back from his defeat to Marco Antonio Barrera in a big way.

Morales is technically more proficient than Pacquiao. He is slick, efficient and clinical. But Pacquiao packs a lot more sock and has a bigger heart. It will come down to which fighter is able to impose his will. If Pacquiao dictates how the fight will go, Morales has no chance. If Morales manages to survive the early rounds, he becomes more dangerous as the bout progresses.

Here are the 15 factors that could spell the difference in the fight.

• Defense. Morales has excellent defensive technique. He leans away from blows, moves his head to avoid direct hits and parries with both hands. Pacquiao’s offense is his defense. Edge: Morales.

• Firepower. Pacquiao can knock a fighter off his feet with a single blow, like he did to Fahsan 3-K Battery in Taguig last December. No fighter in his weight class is as powerful a puncher. Edge: Pacquiao.

• Technique. Morales’ style is almost impeccable. No wasted motion. His moves are calculated. His left jab is jarring and could be a major problem for Pacquiao. Edge: Morales.

• Heart. Pacquiao is relentless in the ring. He is determined. There is no doubt in Pacquiao’s minds that he is superior to Morales. Edge: Pacquiao.

• Resiliency. Morales is known to fight back when he’s hurt. It’s an instinct that could prove fatal. Pacquiao got up from knockdowns to stop Barrera, Nedal Hussein and Serikzhan Yeshmangbetov. Edge: Pacquiao.

• Experience. Morales has been there and done that. He has fought 11 world champions and lost only to Barrera twice. The Mexican has logged 49 fights since 1993. Edge: Morales.

• Stamina. Morales has gone the 12-round distance in his last three outings, winning twice. In all, he has fought 11 12-round fights to the limit. Air in his lungs has never been a problem for Morales. Edge: Morales.

• Durability. Morales has been floored only once in his career – by Barrera – and it was a fluke knockdown. He has never been stopped. Morales has a granite chin and knows how to take a punch. Edge: Morales.

• Wear and Tear. Pacquiao has been involved in a lot less brutal wars. Morales has figured in vicious brawls with Barrera (thrice), Jesus Chavez, In Jin Chi and more. He’s not the same as he once was. Edge: Pacquiao.

• Quality of opposition. Because Morales has fought 11 world champions compared to six for Pacquiao, he has engaged more formidable opposition. The downside is the wear and tear that has taken a toll on his body. Edge: Morales.

• Courage. Pacquiao is Mr. No Fear. He’s not scared of anyone. He’s not intimidated by an opponent’s credentials or reputation. He believes in himself. Edge: Pacquiao.

• Speed. Morales is not as mobile on his feet as Pacquiao and likes to fight straight up. Pacquiao has worked on both his handspeed and footspeed in the gym. The fact that he is younger is to his advantage. Edge: Pacquiao.

• Desire. Pacquiao realizes what this fight means to his future and the Philippines. He is motivated to win. He knows victory will not only be his but the entire Filipino people. Edge: Pacquiao.

• Focus. Morales closeted himself in the Mexican mountains, training in seclusion for about three months. There is no dissension in his camp unlike in Pacquiao’s. The Filipino is surrounded by hordes of fans and sycophants. Edge: Morales.

• Cornerwork. Freddie Roach is Pacquiao’s chief cornerman. He is a fight scholar and a master of strategy. No trainer compares to Roach in terms of competence. Edge: Pacquiao.

My forecast is Pacquiao will knock out Morales in six rounds. If the fight goes beyond six, it becomes a 50-50 affair. Morales will use his left jab to stymie Pacquiao’s attack in the early rounds then move in if and when the Filipino starts to tire and gets frustrated. The key is for Pacquiao to fight intelligently.

If Pacquiao doesn’t stray from his fight plan, there is no way Morales can win.