But that‘s if officiating will be fair and square.
Consensus among PBA coaches is that the Nationals could beat the Koreans although they would need to work hard to do it and, in the process, guarantee the country of at least the silver medal in the event dearest to the hearts of the Filipinos.
Coaches Yeng Guiao, Norman Black, Alfrancis Chua and Derrick Pumaren have different thoughts but they’re convinced the Nationals have what it takes to beat the host team for a shot at the precious metal the country last won in 1962.
"Kaya natin iyan. Ang malaking kalaban lang natin ay ang homecourt advantage nila. Talent-wise, skills-wise, lamang pa rin tayo sa kanila. Mas-exposed lang sila sa international competitions," said Red Bull coach Yeng Guiao, who had seen the Koreans up-close in Busan while working on some games for the NBN4 panel covering the Asiad.
Guiao believes the Nationals could match up well with the Koreans with the two teams almost equal in height. He said: "Hindi naman sila kagaya ng China na kahit anong rotate mo, kahit nakataas na ang depensa mo hindi magbabago ang tira dahil alam nila hindi sila aabutin."
But Guiao noted the Koreans work the ball around so well – a system, which he thought could beat China.
Black and Chua, who had also seen the Koreans in the flesh while flying to Busan together with Sta. Lucia top officials Exequiel Robles and Buddy Encarnado to lend morale support to the team, expect a tough game and think the Nationals would need to dish out a good game to beat the Koreans.
"We’ll have better matchups with the Koreans than the Chinese size-wise. They have great shooters and good post-up players, and are fluid offensively. But if we can win our matchups with their No. 11 (center Seo Jun Hong) and No. 8 (shooter Moon Kyun Eun) players, we’ll have a good chance," said Black.
"It would also help a big deal if Olsen Racela stays out of foul trouble. The team’s offense runs smoothly with Olsen on the court. In two games Racela had to sit down early because of fouls, the team got back to playing its bad habit of playing one-on-one," added the American mentor who called the shots for the RP team that finished fourth in the Hiroshima Asiad in 1994.
"Height halos parehas lang, speed talo tayo at outside shooting dehadong-dehado tayo. We need to be patient defensively dahil sila hindi kagaya sa PBA na mga 12 seconds (in the shot clock) pa lang, titira na. They work the ball around so well, kailangan natin magtiyaga. Hindi pwedeng first 15 seconds depensa ng husto tapos bibitaw na," said Chua, who’d seen three Korean games in Busan.
Chua thinks Korea is very much better than Japan, noting, for one, that the Koreans have three exceptional shooters compared to the Japanese who only have one in Takahiko Orimo. Black and Chua made special mention of Moon Kyun Eun.
"We have to work harder on defense dahil ang Korea tatlo ang shooters. And they’re more consistent connecting their shots. Tayo kokonekta ngayon si Kenneth (Duremdes) pero mawawala sa susunod na game," said Chua.
Pumaren, meanwhile, said defense would be the key to beat the Koreans.
"This is a team which do not force their shots. They hit the open man and have good shot selection. So our players should be on their toes, they can’t afford to relax on defense," said Pumaren – the very man coach Ron Jacobs tasked to scout the Koreans when the Philippines won the 1986 ABC Men’s Championship in Malaysia.
The Nationals beat the Koreans in that ABC finals for the crown. But the Philippines has never repeated since then – one of its bitter loss curiously decided by one dubious call by a referee during the RP-Korea semifinal match in the 1986 Seoul Asian Games.
And it’s no surprise that officiating is one of the concerns of Filipino coaches with the Philippines facing Korea in a rematch again in the Korean front yard.
Even Jacobs, before he fell sick, was wary how to beat Korea in Korea.