‘Philippines must lead unified ASEAN front vs illicit tobacco trade’

Use of AI tools to aid in detection

MANILA, Philippines — The Philippines must take the lead for a stronger regional response against the multibillion-peso illicit tobacco trade especially as it assumes chairship of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) bloc this year.

Government and industry leaders who gathered at the Third International Tobacco Summit held in Pasig City recently warned that the regional black market has evolved into a sophisticated network threatening the economic stability of the entire Southeast Asian bloc.

Specifically, they stressed that the 11-member bloc must harmonize its national strategies to ensure that no single country could be considered the weak link by transnational syndicates and to prevent further economic bleeding.

Firdaus Muhamad of Euromonitor International noted that over the past two years, illicit tobacco in the ASEAN 6 – which includes the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand and Singapore – resulted in an estimated $12.6 billion in government revenue losses.

Just based on this, he lamented that illicit tobacco represented a “meaningful parallel market” where the value captured by criminal operators was nearly equal to the revenue lost by governments.

He projected that illicit volumes would grow by 5.5 percent annually through 2028, with the total volume rising from 145 billion sticks in 2025 to 170 billion sticks by 2028.

“A combination of price gaps, availability constraints, challenges around enforcements actually help illicit products to represent a meaningful share when it comes to consumer consumption within those specific categories,” Muhammad added.

Domestically, Philippine Tobacco Institute president Bayen Elero-Tinga noted that the country faced a P141-billion black market that was effectively “bleeding our treasury dry” and potentially funding criminal activities like drug trafficking, firearms smuggling and even terrorist factions.

As such, she stressed that the Philippines “must lead the collaboration on regulations that respond to these evolving criminal tactics.”

She said the industry was currently committing its advanced laboratories to provide forensic profiling, including analyzing paper grades and ink signatures, to trace contraband back to regional points of origin.

Valentin Dinca, anti-illicit trade regional director for North and South Asia at Japan Tobacco International, said the Philippines must also adopt better AI tools against its campaign on illicit tobacco.

He noted that the use of AI tools would allow the ease in detection for suspected containers with smuggled tobacco products.

“There is room for improvement, not only regarding the Philippines, but regarding all law enforcement authorities in the region to enhance the use of AI tools in their day-to-day work,” he told reporters.

He noted that the Philippines was among the strongest globally in the campaign against illicit tobacco trade activities.

“Globally, yes, I would say that the Philippines is definitely among the top two markets with positive results against illegal tobacco trade,” Dinca also said.

“The illegal trade level is still high, it still exists, but it has improved a lot. We’re going to see a decrease in the illegal tobacco trade level in the Philippines and if we are to compare with other countries in the region, we’re still doing very well here,” he added.

He noted that while the country ranks among the most advanced in tackling illicit trade, sustaining momentum and ensuring a level playing field remain essential to safeguard the continuity of the legal tobacco industry.