A Rizalian solution

MANILA, Philippines – “THE COUNTRY IS POOR; IT IS GOING THROUGH A GREAT FINANCIAL CRISIS, and everybody points with their fingers to persons who are causing the evil, and yet no one dares to lay their hands on them.”

Words from yesterday’s newspaper editorial? Guess again. They were written in 1889 by Dr. Jose Rizal, whose 148th birth anniversary we are celebrating today. He made that cutting remark some 120 years ago, yet its barbs hit the spot to this day.

The ability to read the Philippine condition is one of the talents that distinguish Rizal from other national heroes. To remind Filipinos of the rich heritage which the Spanish colonizers, the thieves of race memory, have stolen from them, he annotated Morga’s Sucesos de las Islas Filipinas, and to make them aware of a certain future without Spain, he wrote his prophetic essay, Las Filipinas Dentro de Cien Años. His two novels, Noli Me Tangere and El Filibusterismo, respectively portrayed the cancer spreading throughout Philippine society and the consequences of this social malady.

In the 1890s, when the sociopolitical tension was nearing the breaking point, Rizal mapped out several courses of action to ease the situation. One, establish a Filipino colony in Sandakan, North Borneo, to be initially settled by families from Kalamba and other parts of the country that were driven away from their farms by the friars; free of Spanish tyranny, Sandakan could give rise to the ideal Philippine society. Two, establish a secret nationwide organization called La Liga Filipina; in the Liga’s envisioned society, members would be committed to protect each other against any adversity, repel violence and injustice, invigorate education, commerce and agriculture, and study and apply social and economic reforms. Three, write to Governor-General Eulogio Despujol and offer his services to patch up the ruptured relationship between the Philippines and Spain through peacefully negotiated reforms. Four, discuss the mechanics of revolution — e.g. how to smuggle arms, how to get foreign support — with his close friends Galicano Apacible, Jose Alejandrino, Jose Maria Basa and brother Paciano.

Rizal pursued all of the above alternative solutions, but with no success. He visited Sandakan, but negotiations with the area’s British managers for the acquisition of 5,000 acres of land didn’t pan out. La Liga was short-lived; a few days after it was founded, Rizal was banished to Dapitan. Despujol never accepted Rizal’s offer to discuss and institute reforms. Although Rizal held talks with Apacible, Alejandrino, Basa and Paciano, all the men, especially Rizal himself, were overtaken by events.

What was Rizal trying to do? He seemed to be striking out in four different, contrary directions. He prescribed armed revolution as the ultimate means to boot out Spain, although he knew that a revolution wouldn’t work under circumstances where there was no foreign support, no arms, no trained army, no assistance from the elite. Given the Liga’s broad plans, how long could the sub-rosa organization hold out before it was discovered? After writing a novel stoking passions against Spain, why would he take the cordial path of rapprochement?

The clue to understanding Rizal’s enigmatic moves, his biographer Austin Coates suggests, lies in his pen name, Laong Laan, meaning “long destined.” Rizal seemed to have an intuitive notion of his destiny and he wanted to be prepared for that destiny whatever it was. Which was probably why he became a man of many parts — a doctor, writer, teacher, sportsman, linguist, scientist, sculptor and so on. And which was probably why he was never a spontaneous person. Whether by nature or training, he was likely to make a choice calculated from not one but several possible end results. He wrote different endings to the same story.         

That there was method to his moves gives currency to his being perceived as a man ahead of his time. Rizal actively shaped the course of Philippine history through what we now call scenario planning. Close to a century later, his methodology would be adopted by the modern world.

A SCENARIO IS A HYPOTHESIZED VIEW OF THE FUTURE AND OF THE VARIOUS ways of attaining that future based on current driving forces. Scenario planning emboldens us to think out of the box so that we can fully explore all possibilities and the changes these are likely to create.           

Two examples of successful scenario planning may be mentioned: one earned the Royal Dutch Shell Group of Companies (Shell) the reputation of being one of the best-managed companies in the world while another contributed to the dismantling of apartheid in South Africa.

As early as 1972, Shell began scenario planning that enabled it to envisage the creation of OPEC, the oil price shock of 1973-1974, the oil crunch of 1986, the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the chaos in Eastern Europe. Armed with educated perceptions of the future, Shell reworked operations way before the projected crises struck. With its protective shields in place, it emerged generally unscathed from events that rocked the world. 

Shell’s success impacted on development in South Africa, where a multiracial and multisectoral group was convened to produce four future scenarios, all of them named after feathered creatures. “Ostrich” posited the continuance of the de Klerk government, meaning, burying one’s head in the sand; “Lame Duck” was a recipe for a prolonged transition under a tepid government; “Icarus” opted for a radical black government that would embark on a huge spending program to redistribute economic resources; and “Flamingo” proffered a coalition government that would introduce gradual, participatory development, following the flight pattern of the eponymous bird (flamingos take off slowly but always in unison).  

These scenarios were published and debated by various leadership sectors and the public at large. They became the topic of policy dialogues across South Africa. It was perceived that “Ostrich” could deepen polarization and therefore fan more violence; “Lame Duck” could drive away investors and thus thwart growth; “Icarus” was unsustainable and could lead to bankruptcy. “Flamingo” was adjudged the best scenario. The rest, as they say, is history. South Africa today is regarded as the most progressive nation in Africa.

THERE IS MUCH TO BE LEARNED FROM RIZAL AND CONTEMPORARY SCENARIO planners. The nation can use a respite from the daily beating it gets from the uncertain and chaotic times. But more than a respite, it needs more permanent solutions to its problems. Perhaps a group of men and women of probity and gravitas could be convened to plot alternative futures for the Philippines—ones that would wrest the national agenda from traditional politics and allow the people to not merely react to forces beyond their control but to actually have a say in shaping their destiny. That would be Rizalian.