How P-Noy is fulfilling his first year of social contract with the Filipinos

In the middle of year 2010, the year President Benigno C. Aquino III assumed the presidency, a senior DepEd director remarked, “We have the budget to continue our urgent literacy activities but we have been immobilized since we are not allowed to spend it. Everything is paralyzed.”

Iris C. Gonzales headlined in Philippine STAR (Nov. 29, 2011), almost end of the fiscal year “Economic Growth Slows to 3.2% in Q3” (third quarter) — Underspending by the government and global uncertainties continued to drag economic growth in the third quarter with gross domestic product (GDP) expanding by only 3.2 percent from 7.3 percent “honeymoon growth” a year ago... the National Statistical Coordinating Board (NSCB) reported. Let us see how President Aquino is basing his decision on the Philippine Development Plan (2011-2016) assisted by the UN Country Team. 

The UN Country team assists the Philippine government

The Joint UNDAP 2012-2018 (United Nations Development Assistance Program) and PDP 2011-2016 (Philippine Development Plan) is a result of a comprehensive process of identifying the major development priorities in the country and its comparative advantages. It is undertaken by the UN Country Team, the Philippine government, principally the NEDA, in conjunction with the president’s cabinet secretaries, civil society and development partners.

The UNCT is headed by UN resident coordinator Jacqueline Badcock with FAO representative Kazayuki Tsurumi, UNDP country director Renaud Meyer, UNICEF representative Vanessa Tobin, WHO representative Soe Nyunt, UNHCR representative Bernard Kerblat, UNAIDS country coordinator Teresita M. Bagasan and IMO regional coordinator Brenda Pimentel, etc., who I used to work with when I was still the UNESCO Secretary General in the UN spirit of “delivering as one.”

Socioeconomic Planning Secretary and NEDA Director-General, Cayetano W. Paderanga Jr. thanked the UN for its commitment to ensure alignment of its support with national priorities and programs. Likewise, he assured the United Nations of the Philippine Government’s support in the implementation of the UNDAF 2012-2018.”

Persistent challenges revealed by Human Development Index (HDI)

“The Philippine economy has been described as resilient. Despite the global food and fuel crises, gross domestic product (GDP) peaked at 7.1 percent in 2007 and continued to grow at 3.8 percent in 2008. The country was much less affected by the global financial debacle as compared to the other countries; GDP slowed to 1.1 percent in 2009 but recovered to 7.3 percent in 2010, bucking all estimates. At the end of 2009, The Philippines graduated to the rank of ‘lower Middle-Income Country.”

After 20 years of martial rule and ‘people power’ revolution in 1986, democratic institutions have been preserved by a vibrant and vigilant civil society. The capacities of local governments have steadily improved since the devolution of key expenditure and revenue generating powers to provincial/city and municipal governments in 1991.

Notwithstanding these gains however, the country has been unable to reach its per capita income and human development goals. The latest Country and Asia-Pacific Millennium Development Goal (MDG) progress reports indicate the targets pertaining to extreme hunger and poverty, universal primary education and maternal and neonatal health are unlikely to be met in 2015 unless efforts towards these goals are substantially increased. The record over longer term also shows that the country’s fight against poverty has been unsuccessful. There are roughly 2.6 million more income poor people in 2009 than in 1991 and wide sub-national disparities in both incomes and human development outcomes continue to exist. (Disaster related areas of Ifugao, Albay, Bohol, Eastern and Northern Samar, MDG laggard Sultan Kudarat, Saranggani, ARMM.)

Unmanaged population growth and climate change intensify risks

The role that rapid and unmanaged population growth played in the persistence of income and human poverty cannot be overstated. With close to 100 million people and population growth rate that is one of the highest in Asia, the population pressure has exacerbated poverty and fueled rapid urban population growth, overseas labor migration, and unprecedented environmental degradation. The inability of households to freely manage their fertility has severely affected women and children, as indicated by compromised nutrition, health and education achievements at a micro level. The country’s biodiversity, considered a global resource, is under severe threat from population pressure, over-exploitation, and pollution.

Climate change is expected to cause increased weather turbulence, flooding and prolonged droughts, intensifying risks to agricultural production, food security and vector-borne diseases and greatly exacerbating the already fragile socioeconomic conditions of the country. The poor, most of whom live in rural communities or along the coasts of the country’s more than 7,000 islands, are especially at risk because of their strong dependence on natural ecosystems.

Noy urged to speed up public spending

 Reporter Paolo Romero wrote in Philippine STAR (Nov. 28, 2011), “Lawmakers Urge Noy to Speed Up Public Spending” — An administration lawmaker urged yesterday the Aquino administration to speed up government spending and beef up the country’s position as an investment haven in the region to protect the economy from the effects of declining economies in Europe and US.

Rep. Ted Haresco said the present administration’s stance to review infrastructure programs approved during the previous government is creating a strong, anti-corruption image for President Aquino, but has contributed to lower foreign investor confidence. Haresco said that lengthy reviews and delays of infrastructure projects would lead to the stagnation of development in the rural areas. 

Philippine STAR article by Jess Diaz and Marvin Sy last Nov. 30, 2011, “Congress Ratifies P1.8 trillion National Budget for 2012” - This raises the prospect of it being signed by President Aquino and enacted into law on or before December 15. In his budget proposal, President Aquino lumped all appropriations for unfilled positions in separate budget item called miscellaneous personnel benefits fund (MPBF) to ensure that these were used for the purpose for which they were intended.

Senator Joker Arroyo said the requirement of quarterly report on the use of MPBF by the judiciary, Congress and other constitutional offices was highly questionable. He said he finds it suspicious that such requirement does not cover the President but its two coequal branches, the judiciary and Congress.

“Why the double standard? The President is exempted from reporting how his huge MPBF is spent, but the requirement is imposed on the independent and coequal judiciary and Congress to report how they spend their MPBF, which collectively is less than 5 percent of the President’s”.

The well is running dry

To pump the artesian well, the farmer pours water that would help raise the water level to build up an adequate volume of water supply. The farmer keeps adding water while energetically pumping it up. Ultimately, this creates enough pressure that will build up an adequate volume of water supply. Likewise, to vitalize the national economy, the government must repeatedly pour in more money until the national infrastructure are established to help the poor lead a sustainable life and uplift his dignity. As pointed by the joint UNDAP-PDP, our nation seems to be like a well drying up because the president tends to halt spending. Since the fiscal year is drawing to a close then the unspent budget will revert to the national treasury.

How will the president resolve this condition?

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Based on the UNCT Complementary Country Analysis Synthesis Paper, 30 September 2010

28 March 2011 presentation of the Director General to the NEDA Board. Annex 2 presents an outline of the PDP 2011-2016

Philippine 2010 Progress Report on the MDGs [NEDA 2010]