There has been a noticeable shift in tone lately here in Washington, DC whenever the Philippines is discussed. The country is no longer framed merely as a treaty ally with a long-shared history with America. It is increasingly being viewed as a central pillar in a rapidly evolving Indo-Pacific strategy – one that has moved from theory to action.
In a recent Nikkei Asia commentary written by University of Southern California political science professor Derek Grossman, he described what many are calling a “renaissance” in the US-Philippines alliance. That word, definitely, is not used lightly because it reflects a genuine resurgence in cooperation and, above all, strategic clarity between the longtime allies.
However, a closer look at the commentary’s title – “Under Trump, the US-Philippines alliance enjoys a renaissance, for now” – clearly highlights the cautionary phrase that should give everyone serious pause: “for now.”
That’s because what we are witnessing is not simply the natural course of diplomacy but the convergence of leadership, necessity and timing. And like all such moments in history, this presents a window – but one that will not remain open indefinitely.
Under the leadership of President Marcos Jr., the Philippines has made a decisive and confident return to the center of its alliance with the United States. This has translated into tangible developments: expanded access to Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement sites, more frequent and sophisticated joint exercises and deeper coordination across defense and security channels – all operational realities, not abstract policy shifts.
In recent months, large-scale exercises such as Balikatan have reached unprecedented levels, involving not just American and Filipino forces but more partners from like-minded nations. Interoperability has improved, coordination has deepened, with the alliance demonstrating what credible deterrence looks like in practice.
This transformation is driven by a shared recognition of regional challenges, particularly in the South China Sea, where tensions continue to test the boundaries of international law and the principle of freedom of navigation.
Geography matters, now more than ever. The Philippines sits at a strategic crossroads, at the heart of critical sea lanes through which trillions of dollars in global trade pass each year. It is also positioned along what defense planners refer to as the first island chain, a line of strategic locations central to maintaining balance and stability in the Indo-Pacific.
In this context, the alliance is not just historical – it is in our mutual interest. Yet it would be a mistake to assume that this renewed strength is self-sustaining. The current alignment between Manila and Washington is aided by a convergence of interests and perspectives. The current US leadership’s approach – often described as transactional – has, in this case, worked in the Philippines’ favor. Our strategic value is clear, and our willingness to engage actively has reinforced that perception.
But transactional relationships depend on continued relevance and results. Priorities in Washington can shift. Leadership changes, both here and at home, can recalibrate policies. The urgency of today’s challenges may evolve. And if we are not careful, the momentum we now enjoy could gradually dissipate.
That is why this moment must be understood for what it is: not an endpoint, but an opportunity.
The task before us is to ensure that the gains we are seeing today are institutionalized – embedded not just in policy but in practice, capability and public understanding.
This means continuing to invest in our own defense modernization, strengthening our maritime domain awareness and ensuring that our armed forces are equipped, trained and ready to meet the demands of a changing security environment.
But for an alliance to be resilient, it should go beyond defense – felt not only in military exercises but in economic growth and shared prosperity. Trade, investment, infrastructure and technology partnerships should reinforce the strategic foundation.
The role of the Filipino people must also be recognized. In recent years, public support for the alliance has strengthened, driven in part by a clearer understanding of the challenges we face. However, this support must be nurtured through transparency, communication and a consistent demonstration that policies serve the national interest.
Alliances endure not just because of governments, but because of people.
Here in Washington, there is also growing appreciation that the Philippines is not simply a partner, but a proactive contributor to regional stability. Our voice carries weight not only because of our history, but because of the choices we are making today.
This was underscored during a recent conversation with a senior policymaker who remarked that the Philippines has “moved from the margins to the center of the conversation.”
That observation captures the essence of this moment. We are no longer on the sidelines; we are at the table, helping shape the agenda.
But being at the table comes with responsibility. We must be clear-eyed about the challenges ahead, disciplined in our approach and unwavering in our commitment to protect our sovereignty while contributing to regional peace.
To be clear, our strengthening alliance today is not directed against any one country. Rather, it is anchored on principles: respect for international law, freedom of navigation and the peaceful resolution of disputes – principles that benefit all nations, large and small.
As we move forward, the question is not whether the alliance will remain important – it will – but whether we will have done enough, during this period of renewed momentum, to ensure that it remains strong regardless of changing circumstances.
History has a way of judging such moments not by the opportunities presented, but by what was done with them.
This “renaissance” is real, but it is not guaranteed. It is a window – and one that we must not waste.
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