Good news: The global demand for the three major fossil fuels – oil, coal and natural gas – will decline. Demand for them will peak by the end of this decade, in 2030, according to the October 2023 World Energy Outlook (WEO) of the International Energy Agency.
Bad news: The earth will continue its path to warming by 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels by the end of this century. The 1.5°C limit was set in Paris in 2015 by 196 countries.
Getting fed up with fossil fuel is fueled by a number of factors: Increasing use of electric vehicles and renewable energy is offsetting demand for carbon fuel sources; war in Ukraine, conflict in the Middle East, downbeat macro-economic outlook, a world outraged over ever increasing oil prices and extreme weather events caused by global warming.
“The phenomenal rise of clean energy technologies such as solar, wind, electric cars and heat pumps is reshaping how we power everything from factories and vehicles to home appliances and heating systems,” says the IEA, the world’s most authoritative source on energy research and data.
In 2030, or in seven years, clean energy will play a significantly greater role than today.
“This includes almost 10 times as many electric cars on the road worldwide; solar PV generating more electricity than the entire US power system does currently; renewables’ share of the global electricity mix nearing 50 percent, up from 30 percent today; heat pumps and other electric heating systems outselling fossil fuel boilers globally and three times as much investment going into new offshore wind projects than into new coal- and gas-fired power plants,” IEA enthuses.
Since 2020, global investment in clean energy has risen by 40 percent. In 2020, one in 25 cars sold was electric; today, one in five cars sold is electric, except in the Philippines where there are only 15,000 EV vehicles out of almost five million cars.
This year, more than 500 gigawatts (GW) of renewable energy generation will be added – a new record. Daily, more than $1 billion is spent on solar development. Manufacturing capacity for key components of clean energy, including solar PV modules and EV batteries, is expanding fast.
These increases (in renewables’ share) are thanks to current policies of governments, including the Philippines. President Marcos Jr. is personally focused on mitigating and adapting to the impact of climate change and in the aggressive shift to clean energy.
Even with current and future stronger clean energy measures, the world will not stop from further warming from the goal of 1.5°C, but mankind should stick to the goal.
The present average surface temperature of 1.2°C above pre-industrial levels has prompted heat waves and other extreme weather events. More than 90 percent of the world breathes polluted air, which is blamed for six million premature deaths a year.
Still, says IEA, “The combination of growing momentum behind clean energy technologies and structural economic shifts around the world has major implications for fossil fuels, with peaks in global demand for coal, oil and natural gas all visible this decade – the first time this has happened in a WEO scenario based on today’s policy settings. In this scenario, the share of fossil fuels in global energy supply, which has been stuck for decades at around 80 percent, declines to 73 percent by 2030, with global energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions peaking by 2025.”
The IEA’s base scenario is for demand for energy to slow down by 0.7 percent per year through 2050, half the current 1.3 percent rate.
“The transition to clean energy is happening worldwide and it’s unstoppable. It’s not a question of ‘if’, it’s just a matter of ‘how soon’ – and the sooner the better for all of us,” says IEA executive director Fatih Birol.
“Governments, companies and investors need to get behind clean energy transitions rather than hindering them. There are immense benefits on offer, including new industrial opportunities and jobs, greater energy security, cleaner air, universal energy access and a safer climate for everyone. Taking into account the ongoing strains and volatility in traditional energy markets today, claims that oil and gas represent safe or secure choices for the world’s energy and climate future look weaker than ever,” Birol says.
Concedes the IEA: “Demand for fossil fuels is set to remain far too high to keep within reach the Paris Agreement goal of limiting the rise in average global temperatures to 1.5°C. This risks not only worsening climate impacts after a year of record-breaking heat, but also undermining the security of the energy system, which was built for a cooler world with less extreme weather events. Bending the emissions curve onto a path consistent with 1.5°C remains possible but very difficult. The costs of inaction could be enormous: Despite the impressive clean energy growth based on today’s policy settings, global emissions would remain high enough to push up global average temperatures by around 2.4°C this century, well above the key threshold set out in the Paris Agreement.”
The IEA proposes a five-pillar global strategy for getting the world on track by 2030: Tripling global renewable capacity; doubling the rate of energy efficiency improvements; slashing methane emissions from fossil fuel operations by 75 percent; innovative, large-scale financing mechanisms to triple clean energy investments in emerging and developing economies and measures to ensure an orderly decline in the use of fossil fuels, including an end to new approvals of unabated coal-fired power plants.
“Every country needs to find its own pathway, but international cooperation is crucial for accelerating clean energy transitions,” IEA’s Birol says.
“In particular, the speed at which emissions decline will hinge in large part on our ability to finance sustainable solutions to meet rising energy demand from the world’s fast growing economies. This all points to the vital importance of redoubling collaboration and cooperation, not retreating from them.”
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