The warning was issued back in 2004. With the death toll in Morocco hitting at least 2,122 as of Sunday night following a magnitude 6.8 earthquake, Philippine seismologists have renewed their warning about the need for preparedness for a so-called Big One striking Metro Manila and neighboring areas along the West Valley Fault.
The extensive Earthquake Impact Reduction Study for Metro Manila, which was conducted between August 2002 and March 2004 by the Japan International Cooperation Agency in coordination with the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology, showed that the West Valley Fault is ripe for a major earthquake of up to magnitude 7.2.
If the Big One strikes, modeling under the JICA study showed that up to 34,000 people could be killed, with Metro Manila the hardest hit. Most of the fatalities will be due to collapsed buildings and infrastructure as well as fires in the country’s most densely populated region. Serious disruptions are projected in public utility services and supplies of basic items such as food and medicine.
A map of the most vulnerable areas along the West Valley Fault has long been available to the public. Property owners and developers have largely ignored the map, although contractors have installed earthquake mitigation engineering interventions in several newer buildings.
Earthquake drills are regularly conducted in the National Capital Region and other densely populated urban centers nationwide. But experts say earthquake preparedness in the NCR can still use a significant boost. Preparedness for the fires expected to break out in case of a powerful earthquake remains inadequate, experts have pointed out. Strong typhoons have also highlighted the vulnerability of public utility networks to massive disruptions during natural disasters.
After every major earthquake, whether in other countries or within the Philippines, seismologists renew their warning about the Big One and the need for greater preparedness. Because science has not developed a foolproof way of predicting earthquakes, the warnings are typically met with fatalism. No one can stop an earthquake. Still, there are ways of minimizing vulnerability and improving response to reduce the loss of life and property when disaster strikes. The killer earthquake in Morocco is just the latest reminder of this urgent need for preparedness.