Some people may find it comforting to hear Philippine security officials saying an attack such as the one on French satirical newspaper Charlie Hebdo isn’t going to happen here. But the French obviously didn’t expect that attack either. Who would have thought 12 people would be murdered over cartoons, with several more killed in a supermarket hostage incident?
Neither did Australians expect a self-styled Islamic cleric to barge into a Sydney café last month and take people hostage, later killing two of his captives.
The Islamist threat is wildly unpredictable. Around the world security has been tightened around government, military and public installations such as train stations and airports, which are the usual targets of Islamist attacks. When such targets become heavily guarded, extremists usually shift to soft targets. In Bali, Indonesia, they bombed nightclubs packed with foreigners. In the past weeks they have targeted a coffee shop and two newspaper offices.
Philippine journalists are no strangers to security threats, on top of libel suits that can shut down smaller news organizations because of the high cost of litigation. Yet no one ever imagined that 32 media workers would be massacred and buried together with 26 other people in a shallow grave in Maguindanao simply for covering a challenge to the political stranglehold of one clan.
And so while it may be comforting to hear security officials saying an attack like the one on Charlie Hebdo or the lone wolf attack in Sydney cannot happen here, it would be more realistic to say that such events cannot be ruled out.
The Philippines is awash with loose firearms and other weapons including grenades and landmines. Local extremists have been trained in making improvised explosive devices. Teenage students easily learn how to make firebombs. With law enforcement weak, it would be prudent for everyone to heighten vigilance and take precautions.