Looking beyond 2016

I am beginning to be asked, more and more frequently, about my thoughts on the coming 2016 presidential elections. Most of the time, the question is asked with an increasing degree of concern that the gains — economic and social — under the P-Noy administration will not be continued under a post-2016 administration.
Whenever I am asked for specific names, I always point out that it is too early to forecast the political landscape two and a half years before the elections. A year ago, Enrile was considered a national power broker. Jinggoy Estrada was talked about as presidential or vice presidential material. Even Revilla and Marcos were said to be considering running for national positions.  But all this was during the pre-Napoles era.
Media personalities and political pundits still believe they can determine winners and losers. It may sound like a cliché, but in the end it will be the Filipino who will make their sentiments known.
In the pre -2010 election period, it was assumed that the major candidates would be Villar, Roxas, Estrada and the GMA candidate. But there was a palpable feeling that the people were looking for something else which all the self-proclaimed political experts did not discern.
Then came the tragic death of President Corazon Aquino with the massive outpouring of grief sending a message mirroring the kind of leader the Filipino people were looking for. The P-Noy Movement was not the result of power brokering or polls. It was the result of a confluence of external events fuelled by a people’s desire for a transformation of the values of Philippine society.
But it is not too early to start talking about the kind of political leader we are looking for in 2016 and the post-P-Noy era. For this purpose we can look first to those who have written seriously about presidential leadership in contrast to radio commentators and media personalities who treat politics in the same way they treat showbiz news – focusing on scandals and personality conflicts.
There have been many observations, ranging from the sublime to the academic to the pragmatic, on the ideal political leader. First, the sublime. Pope Francis in his Papal Exhortation (paragraph 205) wrote:
“I ask God to give us more politicians capable of sincere and effective dialogue aimed at healing the deepest roots – and not simply the appearances – of the evils in our world! Politics, though often denigrated, remains a lofty vocation, and one of the highest forms of charity, inasmuch as it seeks the common good. We need to be convinced that charity ‘is the principle not only of micro-relationships (with friends, with family members or with small groups) but also of macro-relationships (social, economic and political ones).’ I beg the Lord to grant us more politicians who are genuinely disturbed by the state of society, the people, the lives of the poor. It is vital that government leaders and financial leaders take heed and broaden their horizons to ensure that all citizens have dignified work, education and healthcare.”
There is one of the leading presidential candidates, who for now is better left unnamed, that has often publicly expressed concern for the poor but somehow has not convinced the public that he is “genuinely disturbed” by the lives of the poor.
Need the Filipino people be reminded that we need a political leader who demonstrates, not just through words, but through deeds and lifestyles, that his concern for the poor is genuine and sincere?
In the article “The Ever Emerging Markets: Why Economic Forecasts Fail,” Rachir Sharma wrote that in the middle of the last decade, economic forecasters predicted that there would be a new bloc of economic power composed of Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRICs) that would gain “ultimate supremacy over the fading powers of the West.” However, five years after the 2008 financial crisis he says: “...the BRICs are crumbling each for its own reasons...As the hype fades, forecasters are left reconsidering the mistakes they made at the peak of their boom.”
Sharma points out that forecasters look only at economic cycles and not at political cycles. He says: “Crises and downturns often lead to a period of reform which can flower into a revival or a boom. But such success can lead to arrogance and complacency – and the next downturn...The trick to escaping this trap is for governments to maintain good policies even when times are good — the only way an emerging market has a chance of actually catching up to the developed world.”
He then talks of exciting possibilities: “Today, in addition to Mexico and the Philippines, Peru and Thailand are making their run. These four nations share a trait common to many star economies of recent decades: a charismatic political leader who understands economic reform and has the popular mandate to get it enacted. Still, excitement should be tempered. Such reformist streaks tend to last 3 to 5 years. So don’t expect the dawn of a Filipino or Mexican century.”
But in the same article, Sharma offers a possible scenario for the two countries: “Economists tend to ignore the story of people and politics as too soft to quantify and incorporate into forecasting models. Instead, they study policy through hard numbers, such as government spending or interest rates.
But numbers cannot capture the energy that a vibrant leader such as Mexico’s new president, Enrique Pena Nieto, or the Philippines’ Benigno Aquino III can unleash by cracking down on monopolists, bribers and dysfunctional bureaucrats.”
As I look towards 2016, I ask myself,  why will all these reforms last only until the end of P-Noy’s term?  Can we not find a presidential candidate that will combine the values and genuine concern for the poor as articulated by Pope Francis, together with the energy and the charisma that Rachir Sharma says is needed in an emerging economy?
When the people elected P-Noy in 2010, surely what they were looking for was not just a temporary period of reform and economic growth but finally the dawn of the golden age for the Philippines and the Filipino people.
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Email: elfrencruz@gmail.com