We could end up with two contending senatorial tickets. Or maybe four.
It does not really matter. There will be very little consequence for the general political configuration whatever the outcome of the senatorial contest. The key policy issues are not at stake in this battle.
After all, what is being contested in this particular race is a chamber that has been largely inutile the past few years. The more inconsequential this chamber becomes after the next elections, the more comfortable the administration will be.
There is, to be sure, very little doubt the Lakas-Kampi-NPC-LP coalition will continue to dominate the House overwhelmingly. An "equity of the incumbent" arrangement among the member-parties of the ruling coalition will ensure economy of effort and bring more resources into the districts currently held by opposition politicians.
Groups aligned with the ruling coalition parties are expected to put in more serious effort to take as many party-list seats as possible.
In fact, the greater likelihood is that greater friction, and greater suspense, will accompany the party-list contest. For the senatorial contest, sheer celebrity power will define the outcomes.
The opposition would, of course, rather have a two-ticket race. That way, the whole exercise could be spun as some sort of "referendum" on the administration of Gloria Macapagal Arroyo.
As things stand at this late stage, the best opposition strategists could hope for is a two-and-a-half ticket race, with some sort of nebulous "third force" inserted in the race.
The administration strategists, for their part, should like as many tickets in play as possible – even if they have to encourage a "B Team" to come in to play. A multi-sided race will blunt all efforts to spin the senatorial contest as a "referendum" of sorts.
In addition, a multi-ticket fight for Senate seats will help defuse opposition bailiwicks and magnify the organizational and logistical advantages enjoyed by the ruling coalition. A multi-ticket contest will force the smaller contestants to establish candidate-presence in more localities in order to support their senatorial bets. That will not be economical for the smaller groupings, especially since the scarcest resource in this next elections is not want of candidates but want of campaign financing.
The pro-administration coalition parties, for their part, already have incumbent candidate presence in all the localities. They can very well support their own campaigns in the localities while supporting the unified senatorial ticket the administration will finally assemble very close to the deadline.
Too, a multi-ticket fight for Senate seats will diffuse whatever dynamic there might be towards political polarization. It will enable this particular electoral exercise to become a means for moving partisan politics beyond the "Erap vs. Gloria" mold.
The diffusion of partisan alignments will enable the pro-administration coalition to control the center-of-gravity of electoral politics leading to the decisive 2010 presidential contest.
This senatorial contest is a last-ditch effort of pro-Estrada politicians to remain a significant political force the next three years before a truly decisive political contest. This is not a "referendum" on the administration. It is a desperate battle for survival as far as the aging pro-Estrada politicians are concerned.
That explains why this band of fading politicians appear more anxious about the senatorial race than the other factions. They are holding meetings nearly daily, issuing all sorts of statements meant to keep them in the news.
But their anxiousness backfired. A heavy-handed selection process by a small cabal of pro-Estrada high priests alienated several significant politicians otherwise safely in the opposition fold, led by former senator Francisco Tatad.
Also rather anxious about the shape the senatorial tickets finally take are two politicians looking at the 2010 presidential contest.
Senator Mar Roxas has been involved in rebuilding the LP as his vehicle to contest the 2010 presidential race. The party-building effort was doing fine until a faction led by Senator Franklin Drilon thought they saw power within shorter reach by breaking with the ruling coalition and demanding in July 2005 the resignation of the President.
That opportunistic maneuver was opposed by LP stalwarts aligned with Manila Mayor Lito Atienza. Consequently, the LP split. The level of acrimony basically ensures this party will remain split through 2010.
Senator Manuel Villar, for his part, has been trying to rebuild the moribund Nacionalista Party (NP) as his vehicle for the 2010 contest. The franchise for this party is held by the Recto brothers, who both have had problems sorting out their own political bases.
Consequently, the rehabilitation of the NP gained very little headway. It has definitely failed to carve out a clear party identity, mark out some ideological territory and build a cadre of local politicians with enough means to support the party’s standard bearers.
In the end, neither the LP nor the NP had the means and the organization to support independent senatorial slates as part of their respective preparations for 2010. Last heard, the two minor factions (nay, fractions) were still deep in negotiations to collaborate for a joint ticket – even if they had contradictory purposes for the 2010 presidential contest.
If an LP-NP joint ticket, packaged as a "third force", materializes in the next few days, it will probably still be undermanned. They will need to be reinforced by leftwing group Akbayan which appears to be angling to play the senatorial game for whatever inspiration possessed them.
Former Senator Kit Tatad has been hinting of putting together a group of self-appointed moral crusaders to contest for Senate seats as well. This will be the fourth force.
We are looking at a very crowded horserace indeed.