Despite the angry resistance to a Hamas takeover of control of the Palestinian Authority being offered by the formerly ruling Fatah group, represented at the top by Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, it’s almost inevitable that Hamas will take power, since Palestinian voters democratically elected that aggressive movement, dubbed "terrorist" by the United States and the European Union, into dominance in the parliament with 76 seats versus the Fatah’s humiliatingly-reduced 54.
US President George W. Bush has indicated that Washington DC will never underwrite a "terrorist" group, particularly one avowedly determined to wipe Israel off the face of the map. The US, since 1993, has given the Palestinian Authority and Palestinian NGOs no less than US$1.7 billion in assistance, therefore a withdrawal of US financial and material aid can deal a substantial blow to the already shaky Palestinian economy. The leaders of the European Union, meeting in turn, have said much of the same thing – which would indicate that, unless Hamas moderates its stance and "recognizes", instead, Israel’s right to exist, and disavows the use of violent methods such as suicide-bombing, the aid spigot will be turned off.
The Hamas leaders, in response, have growled they will not be "blackmailed" by foreign pressure. If the place were not the Middle East, the situation might be called a Mexican stand-off. The only – rather withered – sprig, not even an olive branch, being offered by the resentful Hamas chieftains is that no money or other forms of assistance given the Palestinian people would be used by a Hamas-run government to fund violent activities or the Intifada. This is certain to be too fine a line to be drawn, even if Hamas gave access to foreign inspectors and auditors to monitor this, for America and the West to accept. Although neither Washington DC nor Brussels (the EU) have given the Palestinian "victors" any deadline, as yet, for them to comply or signify defiance, if Hamas stands pat the entire region is headed for renewed and escalating conflict.
As for the Palestinians, meaning those who live within the Palestinian Authority from the West Bank to Gaza, a cut-off in Western aid will weigh heavily – with so many jobless and living in squalid poverty, and without any prospect of a better tomorrow. The Palestinian vote was delivered to Hamas out of frustration and rage. Israelis and Palestinians are locked in a seemingly endless cycle of revenge and despair – with all-too-brief interludes of hope almost immediately dashed by assassination and brutal response. Even Fatah was just a tad more moderate than Hamas. Marwan Barghouti, a Fatah commander in the West Bank once put pungently: "The tears of the mothers of our martyrs fill more space than Palestine will ever occupy."
If the US and Europe cut off aid, will a Palestine ruled by Hamas – with its population suffering – still continue to manage to wage "war" on Israel? There is no doubt still such a war will be well funded by Arab "charitable organizations" and friendly Arab donors, their coffers swelling with petro-euros and petro-dollars owing ironically to the escalating crisis.
With the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) soon to meet in Vienna, oil prices already soared above $68 per barrel in Asian trade yesterday, with an irate Iran calling on OPEC member states to program a cut in production levels as a gesture of protest.
Iran is bitterly resentful of the fact that the US and the European Union have raised the matter of Iran’s nuclear program to the United Nations Security Council, condemning the move and declaring that the controversy should have been handled through "negotiations" and previously-agreed inspections, not by so drastic and insulting a move.
In Iraq, which despite the fighting should be awash in oil, there are 18-hour brownouts in Baghdad – oil production has plunged drastically owing to incessant acts of sabotage.
If we’re still inclined to question how events in the Middle East affect us, this should be our wake-up call. Unless tensions subside, unless the conflicts now ongoing are resolved (which doesn’t appear likely), the price of oil will shoot up. We may be looking at an eventual $150 to $200 per barrel in the long run – and, this means, unless we find alternative sources of energy (also unlikely), that our economy will be kaput.
It’s not only the war clouds over the desert that roil the oil markets. Europe, experiencing one of the coldest winters within memory, is burning up oil and fossil fuel at an alarming rate. The booming 9.9 percent growth of China, with India trying to play catch-up, send both huge countries into a race to corner oil supplies. The enormous appetite for fuel of both nations, with their 1.3 billion and 1 billion strong populations, is almost insatiable.
It’s no wonder Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah, who arrived in Kuala Lumpur last Monday (the first Saudi ruler to visit Malaysia in 36 years) received such a rousing welcome. He was welcomed at the airport by Malaysian Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi and Foreign Minister Syed Hamid Albar. Driven straight to the Parliament building, he received a red-carpet welcome from Malaysian King Tuanku Syed Sirajuddin, the Yang di-Pertuan Agong, and a 21-gun salute. The major agreement to be signed? An oil deal, of course. King Abdullah assumed the throne last August following the death of his half-brother, King Fahd (he had long "reigned," really, as the Crown Prince with King Fahd incapacitated by a serious heart ailment). In the current trip, his first outside the Middle East since he assumed the monarchy, Abdullah has already visited China and India, and today heads for Pakistan on the final leg of his grand tour. His power-sized delegation was composed of 11 ministers, 13 members of the Royal family, senior government officials and businessmen.
Saudi Arabia is on a roll thanks to the increased demand for oil from its reserves, the largest in the world. So we mustn’t expect any favors from them owing to the partnership of our PETRON with Saudi Aramco. Yet, with 900,000 Filipinos working in "Saudi," there’s a relationship that counts.
In any event, record-high petrol prices have already taken their toll in our country. Philippine economic growth slowed to 5.1 percent in 2005 – down from 6 percent the year before, no matter how bright a face our government "bottled sunshine" dispensers would like to put on it. Belt-tightening may be in prospect in the months to come.
Senator Joker Arroyo, when asked by media afterwards, declared that it is no joke. The Senate is standing pat on its budgetary "execution" of the PCGG.
I’ve for years advocated the closure of the PCGG, which five years ago – I’ve maintained – exceeded its writ and should have been folded up. It has, in fact, become some sort of parasite feeding on the companies and banks it was supposed to be "saving." This is no aspersion on the courageous and righteous lady who was its last Chair, the late Haydee Yorac whom I adore. In spite of being wracked by the disease which finally brought her down, Haydee did the job assigned to her by the President, earnestly and honestly, which I can’t say of some of her colleagues and underlings.
And so, will the Senate’s thunderbolt mean R.I.P. for the PCGG? Let me say it though: The act of the Senate was one of bullying and arrogance. Although it may accomplish what I devoutly wished, for sometime, to happen – and it might still be undone – I wish the Senate had not acted in such a childish and petulant manner. Grandes males, grandes remedios? There was nothing grand about that affair and its silly denouement.