But our real problem lies in the fact that we have the worst fiscal situation ever since time immemorial because of the large government debt that as of February this year has already hit P4.08 trillion, a population that’s growing by leaps and bounds that could reach 160 million by 2030. As a matter of fact, at the Forum for Family Planning and Development which I attended the other day, it was disclosed that 11 million Filipinos are confirmed to be going hungry, 18 million are undernourished, and 25.4 million or about one third of the population live in extreme poverty and subsist on P34 per day.
Our friend Peter Wallace has repeatedly said it’s a question of leadership – citing the likes of Winston Churchill, Margaret Thatcher and Lee Kuan Yew as effective leaders who were able to steer their countries into growth despite seemingly great odds. "Good leadership isn’t important, it’s essential," according to Peter. Although a lot of the problems under GMA’s administration are inherited, this is compounded by the fact that the 1987 Constitution had been drafted in a manner that drastically cut the powers of the presidency. It’s almost power sharing not only with the Legislative body but now even the Judiciary decides on economic matters. GMA cannot solve all these enormous problems, but because Filipinos have a leadership by personality orientation, everybody is looking at her to solve these problems. And if she does not – she gets all the blame – not the senators, not the congressmen. Yet we all know most problems today could be traced to too much politics.
Consistency and political will are still the key operative words. GMA as an economist knows that the long-term solution to our country’s growing problems is to manage the population growth. She knows that the current 2.36 population growth rate should be reduced not only to 1.9 but ideally to 1.5. But strong advocates of population management say this seems to be mere lip service because the administration keeps tiptoeing around the Church. It is not putting enough teeth nor resources to curb it, like what Thaksin Shinawatra did in Thailand. The death penalty is another example of the lack of consistency and political will – we had been vacillating about it for several years. There was a moratorium on the death penalty in January 2001 that was lifted a few months later and then reinstated in 2002. After a visit to the Vatican in September 2003, GMA announced the moratorium would stay. In December that year she selectively lifted the moratorium on convicted drug traffickers and kidnappers. After that however, people have witnessed reprieve after reprieve being given to convicted criminals on death row. Now the death row penitentiary looks like a retirement home where people die of old age instead of lethal injection. Drugs is another major problem that is rapidly growing. The UN has already tagged us as the drug capital of Asia because we have not shown consistency and political will in the fight against drugs. Indonesia for instance sentenced 27-year-old Schapelle Corby to 20 years in jail for smuggling 4.1 kilograms of marijuana in spite of backroom pressure from the Australian government. In the Philippines, no one has ever been executed because of drugs in spite of RA 7659 which is clearly written in Bureau of Immigration forms that say "Death to drug traffickers under Philippine laws."
The lowest performance rating of negative 33 percent cited by the SWS survey should be used by GMA to see where she went wrong and change gears at this early stage. Next to Marcos, she would have the longest term of nine years and she still has the opportunity to turn things around. As I’ve told one of her close friends and "cronies," she can either become the best or the worst president this country has ever had. Fortunately or unfortunately for her, there is no middle ground for this presidency. This is the biggest challenge that she is facing. This country has become very difficult to govern with the present democratic system. We have had a failed dictatorship and the only other avenue for peaceful change is through charter change. This may work to GMA’s advantage and could deflect some of the blame from her. The SWS survey should serve as a wakeup call to GMA. She should listen to people who are prepared to tell her the truth. There are some allies who seriously want to help her and want her to succeed but she seems to be alienating them by protecting some people around her who have their own personal agenda.
It’s really a "Catch-22" situation for her. While she has to solve the fiscal problem caused by many years of borrowings and corruption – not necessarily during her administration – she has to contend with rising prices and a dwindling tax base because of the massive exodus of the middle class. The sad fact is our economy is being kept afloat because of OFW remittances. Those who remain here can’t even send their children to school because of rising costs. It’s also getting harder to attract foreign businessmen because of corruption and our ever-changing laws that make it difficult for them to invest. This is the reality we face today.
No one will argue that GMA is really working hard at her job but unfortunately, with today’s enormous problems, hard work is not enough. People expect a clear and focused direction on where we are going. What I fear most is with GMA’s failure, we may not be so lucky like EDSA 1 or 2 where an ousted president can go into exile in Hawaii or a rest house in Tanay. This time it could be bloody. The late Teddy Benigno (may his soul rest in peace) predicted a revolution for so many years. It may not come anytime soon and I’m still hoping he was wrong. But the low ratings should serve as a barometer of the people’s feelings and should not be ignored because it could reach boiling point. The opportunity for GMA to turn things around is still there, but that window of opportunity is fast closing – with the increasing number of hungry people in the streets.