In the face of all this, the government of President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo remains buffeted from day to day. She was just elected last May 10 but she heaves like a kite out of control, presumably unable to stay in the air for the full constitutional term of six years. Or can she? She still has the support of the political and social elite, the business community and the Roman Catholic Church. The latter may have lost visibility but remains a pillar of power in a nation that prays to an all-merciful God for succor.
And yes, despite a political grapevine that reeks daily about rumors of military coups, the evidence is still strong that the generals of the Armed Forces of the Philippines and the Philippine National Police support the president. GMA is known to pamper her generals by giving them important positions in her government upon retirement to the outrage of mid-level officers and low-level troops.
Gen. Eduardo Ermita, who used to head peace negotiations with the Muslim rebels in Mindanao, is now her executive secretary. Gen. Angelo Reyes, once defense secretary and chief of staff, heads a prize cabinet post, the interior and local governments portfolio. Former general Leandro Mendoza heads the transport and communications cabinet portfolio and retired PNP chief Hermogenes Ebdane, Jr., the department of public works and highways.
There is, evidently, rampant graft in the military. Two former comptrollers in the AFP are charged with large-scale plunder, having allegedly looted government coffers of millions of dollars and purchasing luxury apartments and residences and other properties in the United States.
The overall situation in the Philippines today strangely resembles the Weimar government in Germany before the advent of Adolph Hitler and the provisional regime in Russia under Alexander Kerensky before the wild-eyed Bolsheviks under Lenin took over the Kremlin. Perhaps the Chiang Kai-shek regime in China before Mao Zedong and the communists swept to power could also be a parallel.
Whatever it is, many in civil society are up in intellectual arms. They believe the government is headed for a fall. For the first time, there is talk about a "revolutionary government" on the premise that American-style democracy installed after World War II has failed. An "authoritarian regime" is the subject of lively debate.
The worst cases would be a popular revolution, sparked by left-wing groups led by the communists, or a civil war. In all cases, the assumption is that no regime change, or any change, can prosper without the support of the moderate and reform-oriented elements in the military.
The Philippines cannot seem to cope effectively with national crisis.
Whatever the reasons for the political, social and economic impass, there is a massive leadership void. Since the Marcos government’s assassination of Ninoy Aquino, charismatic, dynamic, and highly popular opposition stalwart in 1983, no Filipino alive today measures up to the standards.
While other countries in Asia always manage to come up with new and highly popular leaders like Thaksin Shinawatra in Thailand, Roh Moo Hyun in South Korea, Abdullah Badawi in Malaysia, Viktor Lushchenko in Ukraine, the Philippines is stuck with political mediocrity interested mostly in amassing personal fortunes.
President Arroyo, who had a good chance to bring this crisis-prone country to higher ground, being an economist and convent-educated daughter of her dead father, former president Diosdado Macapagal, has proved to be an ineffective leader, lacking not only in vision but a visible moral and ethical compass.
All this probably explains why the country is mired in multiple crises. Not one leader from the poor, uneducated masses or even the middle class can rise to ignite the citizenry. Not one either from the political parties or the social and economic elite. They hardly care a fig for social justice.
The media, traditionally a source for creative and conceptual social and political engineering, as well as academe, has lain fallow these many years. The Roman Church used to have radical elements working the social barricades. This Church is today identified with the elite.
Maybe it’s time to venture a few concepts that could capsize the status quo.
The way I look at it, historical forces beyond her control will shortly compel GMA to attend to her political survival. She will either declare a state of national emergency if not martial rule. She has her generals whom she believes will circle the wagons to protect her. In the same way that Pakistani president Gen. Pervez Musharraf had his generals and clung to power and Chiang maintained his when he fled to Taiwan.
So where does this lead to, GMA declaring a state of national emergency or martial rule?
First, you bring the curtains down on the current state of affairs — crash, finito. Second, with your generals, you set the constitution aside. Third, you start with the slate clean and announce the staging of snap presidential elections. Remember, the May 10 elections were perceived as a big, colossal fraud. This, among other factors, led to GMA’s popularity plunge to minus five or minus six. With this, she can never govern effectively. And could be the target of coups or coup attempts.
Fourth, and this is where the snap presidential polls, acquire Promethean fire, it could have the approval of the citizenry and the opposition that claimed it was cheated May 10.
Okay, Fernando Poe Jr. is now dead. But his popular widow Susan Roces will be a sensational stand-in. Another presidential candidate also banged about May 10 was Bro. Eddie Villanueva of Bangon Filipinas. Even more popular today, he will surely run in the snap. And so will Sen. Mar Roxas who topped the senatorial race. And Senate President Frank Drilon who has been eyeing the presidency like nobody’s business. Oh yes, there’s Sen. Panfilo Lacson. And who knows? Cory Aquino might just prevail on Noynoy to go for the big one. Sen. Aquilino Pimentel maybe?
The condition sine qua non here is that GMA will not repeat not run.
This time she can fully exploit the patriotic oratorio she is out to save the republic, save the nation, give democracy another chance, get all of us out of limbo, etch her name on the flagstone of posterity. She will do the only thing that can bring her honor back, go gently and honorably into the sunset.
There is another scenario that could also be a way out of the present impasse.
The top leaders of the party in power, including GMA, and the opposition will agree to the formation of a government of national reconciliation. A government of five top leaders, led by a rotating chairman, or two co-chairmen, will run the country for a transition period of five years and concentrate largely on firing up the economy and reducing poverty.
In a deeply divided country where consensus is virtually impossible among the warring political parties, this government of national reconciliation has much less chances of materializing than the holding of snap presidential elections.
The dictator President Ferdinand Marcos staged snap presidential elections in February 1986 under the impetus of Washington which felt his martial rule was deteriorating rapidly and that Corazon Aquino, widow of the martyred opposition leader, had taken control of the streets.
The dictator, just like Ms. Aquino, claimed victory. But foreign observers, largely American led by Sen. Lugar, claimed there was massive cheating committed largely by the Marcos government. US president Ronald Reagan virtually unseated Marcos by asking him to "Break and break cleanly." Marcos and his family, aided by the US, sought sanctuary in Honolulu.
Is there a possibility snap presidential elections can occur anew in the Philippines 20 years after the first?
I personally do not see any other way out of the Philippine maelstrom that would avoid bloodshed, revolution or civil war, in the near future except the staging of such elections with GMA out of the loop.
It’s worth trying.