Counting the costs

Like watching a Mexican telenovela, Filipinos were glued to TV sets yesterday as truck driver Angelo de la Cruz finally appeared following his release. He looked haggard and uncertain about his fate, and seemed afraid to show happiness. It was hard to catch him smiling.

But back in his hometown there was no uncertainty in the jubilation. Tears flowed freely as people applauded; there were screams of triumphant glee. Everybody loves a happy ending, especially in this land where we see so little of it except on TV and in the movies. And Angelo’s dramatic story had the perfect real-life denouement.

Even President Arroyo allowed herself a moment of unabashed rejoicing, being caught on camera raising her arms in a gesture of success. Yes!

But you could see the President already calculating the costs of this victory. Addressing the nation on national TV, she tried to inject some warning about what lies ahead, tempering rejoicing with the idea that this could be a short-lived victory for a nation so vulnerable.

"That will not always be the case," she said, referring to the happy ending of Angelo’s story. "Innocents will come into harm’s way, and circumstances may not allow such a successful outcome."

She did not say outright that next time her government might no longer be as willing to negotiate with kidnappers. Perhaps because she herself can’t be certain; it will depend on the national mood and the stability of her government.

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Angelo should count himself very lucky. His abduction was preceded by the deaths of three Filipinos in attacks in Iraq, but there was no drama in those stories. He was the first Filipino who could be saved, which put additional pressure on the government to do what it could, including bend over backwards to terrorists, to save him.

You could hear the administration thinking aloud: just this one time, and then we’ll count the costs and await the consequences to guide our actions if there is another crisis.

This administration believed it could not afford the political costs of looking heartless at this juncture, especially toward a poor contract worker with eight children depending on him.

Angelo was abducted at a time when the Arroyo administration was still consolidating power after a presidential election whose results remain in a cloud of doubt. Opposition rival Fernando Poe Jr., genuine idol of the masses, still has several days to decide whether to challenge the President’s victory. His supporters wait for his marching orders to take to the streets. They could aggravate the usual disruption created by leftist groups during the President’s State of the Nation Address on Monday — her first under a fresh six-year mandate.

Even in the early days of this hostage crisis, the President was already hearing her usual critics say that this was as much about saving Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo as saving Angelo de la Cruz.

Now she has Angelo to present to the nation during her SONA. When she talks about her 10-point agenda for the next six years and her commitment to fight poverty, people will sit up and listen instead of yawn. And her cabalen in Angelo’s hometown of Mexico, Pampanga will cheer.

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The President, however, surely knows that fighting poverty will also require maintaining international good will. Much of this good will she lost in her hometown-inspired decision to capitulate to kidnappers in Iraq.

No foreign government will admit outright that its future decisions regarding bilateral ties with the Philippines will be affected by this crisis. But you can see President Arroyo bracing for the fallout. And she is giving us fair warning, though subtly, amid the euphoria over Angelo’s release.

The hostage crisis, she said, "is also a time for sober reflection about the world in which we live and our obligation to our nation and to humanity."

"Our people and our nation must remain true to our values and convictions here at home, while remaining committed to our friends and allies abroad."

Perhaps to make sure her message sank in, she should have repeated her statements in Filipino, Pampango, Visayan – every dialect she speaks fluently. Because she might have to repeat the message over and over again in the coming months, as she tries to mend ties with those friends and allies abroad who now raise eyebrows when she talks about Philippine commitments.

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Our allies must surely know enough about Philippine politics and culture to understand why the President did what she did. But confidence in our country has been shaken in capitals that — let’s admit it — are among the biggest contributors to Philippine development efforts.

That confidence has to be regained, and lengthy explanations about the how and why of Manila’s response to the hostage crisis won’t be enough. We might have to wait for another crisis to come along – let’s hope not the same type – before we can prove that we have the national backbone to stand by our commitments. Jingoists trying to influence national policy can ship out to hermit states like North Korea.

No nation can stand alone – not even the world’s lone superpower, as it has seen in Iraq. Our country in particular cannot stand alone, having relied too long on foreigners for far too many things, from food and medical aid to crime laboratory equipment and military aircraft. We have a terrorist problem exacerbated by Islamic militants from Indonesia that we can’t deal with by ourselves. We have millions of Filipinos working abroad, many of them in conflict areas where they are open to all types of attacks.

Being part of the community of nations carries with it certain responsibilities. Those responsibilities we cannot abandon as easily as we ignore the responsibilities that come with freedoms we enjoy in our dysfunctional democracy.