Philippines' strategic role in the Indo-Pacific’s future

On August 11, a People’s Liberation Army Navy vessel and a China Coast Guard vessel collided in the waters of Bajo de Masinloc, a territory well within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone.

While much of the public discourse has focused on the collision itself, the sequence of events that preceded it warrants closer scrutiny.

Prior to the incident, the Chinese vessels executed aggressive and dangerous maneuvers with the clear intent of obstructing a lawful and routine humanitarian operation undertaken by one of the patrol vessels of the Philippine Coast Guard, the BRP Suluan.

The mission sought to deliver assistance to Filipino fisherfolk in waters that the 2016 Arbitral Award affirmed beyond question as part of the Philippines’ sovereign domain.

This latest incident—just one in a long string of similar acts—is a stark reminder of the urgent need to uphold international law and defend the rules-based order against those who deliberately and repeatedly violate it.

Such conduct is not confined to the waters of the Philippines. It is part of a broader pattern of behavior that undermines peace, stability and the vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific.

This is not merely a Philippine concern. Rather, it is a challenge that other like-minded states, including the United States clearly recognize.

In a roundtable discussion organized by the Stratbase Institute shortly after the incident, experts from the leading US think tank The Heritage Foundation underscored that the Indo-Pacific is now Washington’s priority theater.

Significant adjustments to the US National Defense Strategy and defense budget are expected as part of this strategic reorientation.

There are plans for substantial reductions in force posture and budget allocations for the US European Command with corresponding increases directed to the Indo-Pacific Command. This reallocation of resources is more than symbolic. It reflects a strategic pivot grounded on the recognition of the threat China poses.

An equally important indicator of this reorientation is the deliberate strengthening of defense partnerships with Indo-Pacific allies.

The Heritage Foundation’s Senior Policy Advisor for Defense Budgeting and NATO Policy Wilson Beaver noted that when US Secretary of State Marco Rubio initiated a review of all foreign assistance programs, Taiwan and the Philippines were the only two countries exempted.

This exemption underscores the administration’s prioritization of the region and its commitment to its closest partners.

Similarly, Senior Research Fellow for Strategic Deterrence Robert Peters emphasized that the United States is engaged not merely in the reallocation of forces but also in the deepening of partnerships with key allies.

These initiatives are intended to strengthen their capacity to safeguard their sovereign interests and to enable them to serve as substantive contributors to the development of capabilities essential for deterring aggression.

The United States along with other like-minded states acknowledges that the Philippines—strategically located at the heart of the Indo-Pacific—is an indispensable partner in advancing the collective interest of maintaining a free, open and rules-based regional order.

This recognition is not new. As early as 2017, then US President Donald Trump emphasized the Philippines’ strategic significance from a military standpoint. During President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s recent state visit to Washington, Trump reiterated this point describing the Philippines as a “very important nation militarily.”

This recognition is not exclusive to the US. In the first three years of the Marcos administration, there has been a notable surge of interest from nations seeking stronger bilateral security cooperation with Manila.

This is evidenced by the conclusion of the Reciprocal Access Agreement with Japan, the Arrangement concerning Defense Cooperation with Germany, the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) with New Zealand and others currently under negotiation such as prospective VFAs with Canada and France.

These developments signify a broadening consensus that the Philippines is central to the security architecture of the Indo-Pacific.

With three years left in its term, the challenge now for the Marcos administration is sustaining the momentum.

This will require consistency, resolve and political will. The imperative is clear: continue asserting the Philippines’ sovereign rights, remain a staunch advocate of the rules-based international order and strengthen alliances that contribute to peace and regional stability.

Public opinion is firmly on this side. The Stratbase Institute’s commissioned surveys consistently show that Filipinos support the continued assertion of the country’s rights in the West Philippine Sea. There is also strong public backing for the modernization of both the Armed Forces of the Philippines and the Philippine Coast Guard.

The forthcoming deliberations on the national budget will serve as a clear measure of the administration’s resolve.

Adequate funding must be secured to fully implement much-needed policies, including the Comprehensive Archipelagic Defense Concept.

However, allocations should not be confined to the procurement of conventional defense assets. The growing complexity of threats—including those in cyberspace—demands investment in assets that enhance situational awareness, strengthen resilience and ensure rapid, coordinated response across all domains.

Above all, the administration must continue strengthening partnerships with like-minded states by institutionalizing defense agreements and expanding the scope and scale of joint exercises.

At the end of the day, credible deterrence hinges not only on capabilities but on the strength of alliances and the unwavering resolve to confront aggressive actions.

The August 11 incident at Bajo de Masinloc is more than a maritime altercation—it is a reminder of the stakes in the Indo-Pacific. The contest here is not just about territory; it is about the future of the rules-based order.

For the Philippines, the path forward is clear: assert sovereignty with consistency, modernize defense capabilities with urgency and strengthen alliances with determination. In doing so, Manila will not only secure its own national interests but also play a decisive role in a free, open and rules-based Indo-Pacific.

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Linar-Mae Orbista is a program and research manager for defense and security at the think tank Stratbase Institute.