'Ramil' zigzags around Cagayan

MANILA, Philippines - Living up to its name, typhoon “Lupit” – meaning cruel in Filipino – zigzagged around the rain-soaked northern Luzon yesterday, keeping weary residents on edge and weather forecasters guessing about its next move.

Lupit, locally named typhoon “Ramil,” has been hovering for several days near the coast of Cagayan, sending thousands to seek shelter following “Ondoy” and “Pepeng” that killed nearly 1,000 people, most of them buried in dozens of mudslides.

Ramil’s erratic direction baffled forecasters and frustrated the media who kept predicting its landfall everyday.

The state weather bureau Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) in a nationally televised briefing Thursday evening predicted Ramil would ram into northeastern Cagayan province by early yesterday.

After crawling for the last two days, Ramil barreled on course to hit shore then stalled again yesterday, delaying landfall by another day - or two, or three, said Pagasa chief forecaster Nathaniel Cruz.

Cruz attributed the erratic movement of Ramil to two high-pressure areas from the South China Sea in the west and the Pacific Ocean in the east, each pulling the storm in its direction.

Ramil weakened into a tropical storm yesterday afternoon but Pagasa said it may still bring strong winds and heavy rains over Northern Luzon in the next two days.

As of 4 p.m. yesterday, the eye of Ramil was located some 110 kilometers northeast of Aparri, Cagayan with 105 kms per hour center winds and gustiness of up to 135 kph.

Cruz said Ramil was forecast to remain “almost stationary” in the next several hours because of the high pressure area over South China Sea blocking its natural path.

Pagasa administrator Prisco Nilo said the latest Pagasa models indicated Ramil would likely drift toward the area between the Batanes group of islands and Taiwan.

Instead of hitting Cagayan, the storm is expected to make landfall over Batanes.

Weather stations in Hong Kong and Japan said Ramil (Lupit) would make a sharp turn northwards, away from the Philippines.

But Cruz said this had not yet been confirmed, while warning that Ramil and the high-pressure areas he had earlier pointed out were all “erratic,” making definite forecasts impossible.

Typhoons usually slice through the northern Philippines from the Pacific and exit through the South China Sea. The country, known as the welcome mat for typhoons, gets about 20 a year during the rainy season from June to December.

People in coastal fishing towns and other vulnerable areas had already been evacuated from their homes, while relief and rescue supplies had been stocked in the north in the event Ramil hits.

The government has imposed preemptive evacuation of residents in several areas while relief and rescue supplies had been stocked in anticipation of the worst-case scenario.

Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro said the government was continuing to monitor the storm for any change in its movement.

“We really plan for the worst-case scenario,” Teodoro said in a radio interview.

For the past week, troops and disaster-relief officials have ferried tons of canned food and clothes and moved rubber boats and helicopters along the eastern coast and the mountainous Benguet province.

At least 1,500 residents living along the Cagayan River and its tributaries were moved to high ground, according to Cagayan Gov. Alvaro Antonio.

Another 1,000 people left their homes in Aparri, including some 200 residents after a wave surge collapsed a 20-meter high sea wall in San Antonio village early this week.

Ramil’s imminent arrival comes after tropical storms Ondoy (Ketsana) and Pepeng (Parma) caused massive destruction across the northern Philippines from Sept. 26.

Residents in Cagayan and Batanes are preparing for the worst but for them, the wait seems unending – until the storm inexplicably veered away from the projected path. –AP, Helen Flores, Charlie Lagasca, Jack Castano