MANILA, Philippines — Just as the Visayas starts to recover from months of power supply constraints, the onset of the super El Niño threatens to trigger another wave of grid alerts, according to the Department of Energy.
DOE simulations show that the region could face blackouts if additional capacity from power barges and battery energy storage systems fail to come online amid an expected increase in electricity demand.
“We will have substantial numbers of red alerts, not just yellow alerts,” Energy Undersecretary Mario Marasigan said yesterday.
He added that the DOE is closely monitoring the Visayas in its simulations for 2026 and 2027 to ensure that planned power projects are ready by January.
If the committed power plants come online as scheduled, Marasigan expects the number of yellow and red alerts to decline.
The Visayas had only just begun to breathe a sigh of relief after months of grid alerts that started in May finally came to an end last month.
As of Sept. 28, the region had recorded 115 yellow alerts and 44 red alerts, according to the National Grid Corp. of the Philippines. A yellow alert is issued when power reserves fall to low levels, while a red alert is hoisted when available supply is insufficient to meet consumer demand.
Energy Undersecretary Rio Inocencio said the DOE is prepared to deploy additional power capacity if needed, noting that the department is “continuously receiving offers of power barges that can be mobilized.”
In Mindanao, the DOE expects “very limited” yellow alerts, with red alerts possible toward the end of the year and in the last quarter of 2027.
The outlook takes into account the potential impact of El Niño on the output of the Agus-Pulangi hydropower facilities.
Marasigan said the DOE also sees occasional red alerts in Luzon, but these would not necessarily lead to rotational brownouts.
Energy Secretary Sharon Garin earlier warned that high demand and reduced power plant output, particularly from hydropower facilities, could drive up electricity prices.
“I don’t want to be a doomsayer, but I just want to be very transparent about this,” Garin said.