Possibility of El Niño this year now low, says Pagasa

MANILA, Philippines - The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said yesterday the possibility of an El Niño phenomenon is now low but warmer than normal conditions will still be felt over the country throughout the remaining weeks of 2012.

“The past few weeks sea surface temperatures (SST) over the Equatorial Pacific (one of the indicators of ENSO or El Niño Southern Oscillation) consistently went down to near-neutral ENSO although slightly warmer,” PAGASA administrator Nathaniel Servando said, citing the latest report of the US Climate Prediction Center.

“For December we still expect some areas to have below normal rain, particularly in the western part of Luzon even El Niño has weakened,” Servando said.

Esperanza Cayanan, chief of PAGASA’s climatology division, said neutral ENSO condition prevails “but the Philippines is located on the warmer side.”

Rusy Abastillas, weather specialist at PAGASA, said the SST was warm, however, it did not reach the El Niño threshold of +0.5 degrees Centigrade.

Abastillas said this was based on the recent forecasts made by the US Climate Prediction Center/International Research Institute and Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

“The average SST for the last three months (August to October) was +0.4 degrees Centigrade. Even if it did not reach the El Niño threshold value of +0.5 degrees Centigrade, the impact of the warming of the Pacific Ocean could still be felt in the country,” Abastillas said.

She said rainfall condition from Nov. 1 to 25 was below normal in Luzon and the Visayas, except in Samar.

“If we compare it to the normal rainfall during the said period, there is a scarcity of rain. One of the contributing factors is the warming of the SST in the Pacific Ocean,” she said.

“We expected in August to October for a full-blown El Niño. In August the El Niño conditions strengthened but fluctuated in September,” she added.

Servando said as of Nov. 27, most of Luzon, except the northeastern portion, Mindoro, Quezon, northern Palawan, western Panay and Metro Manila, received “way below normal” rainfall.

He said central Visayas and central Mindanao also received below normal rainfall while eastern Mindanao experienced above normal rain.

El Niño is defined as warmer sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific Ocean and is characterized by below normal rainfall.