GO spokesman, Abalos clear air

BANGKOK (AP) - Thailand's roller-coaster politics of the past year and a half, which saw a popular civilian government toppled by a military coup, head for another treacherous turn Wednesday, when a court may disband the country's two largest parties.

In a decision that could radically alter the political landscape, the Constitutional Court is to rule on whether the Thai Rak Thai party of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and its Democrat Party rival violated election laws in April last year.

If found guilty, either or both parties could be dissolved, or their executives barred from public office for five years, or both.

"The question on everyone's mind is `who is going to run Thailand in case of a guilty verdict?' Although many Thais want a fresh start, a political vacuum will be bad for the country and the economy and could prolong the dictatorship's stay in power for six months to a year," said Panitan Wattanayagorn, a political scientist at Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University.

"We could be heading into uncharted and possibly turbulent waters," he said.

Thai Rak Thai in 2005 became the first party in Thai history to win an absolute majority in Parliament, and by all accounts remains popular with rural voters for its populist policies. But last year the military overthrew Thaksin in a bloodless coup d'etat after demonstrations calling for his resignation for alleged corruption and abuse of power.

The Democrats were the main opposition to Thaksin, and are the country's oldest political party as well as its second biggest. In a ploy to deny Thaksin a parliamentary quorum, they led a boycott of last year's election, leading to the charges that will be judged Wednesday.

Thai Rak Thai is accused of financing obscure parties to run against it to get around rules requiring a minimum voter turnout in constituencies where single candidates run unopposed. The Democrat Party is accused of conniving with some small parties to lure Thai Rak Thai into illegally funding them.

Although ideological antagonists, the two parties represent the political establishment over the past decade.

That could all change if the court ruling goes against them. The generals who ousted Thaksin last September have already been restricting the parties' activities while a new constitution is being drafted prior to a new election, supposed to be held in December.

Even though the parties could re-establish themselves under new names and leaders, the politicians who have dominated government since the 1990s could soon find themselves on the shelf, with second tier parties and old political bosses who were previously sidelined stepping to the fore.

With power splintered among smaller, less-organized parties, the generals who ousted Thaksin could retain their influence. They currently share power with an interim civilian government appointed after the coup, and haven't been shy about showing they are first among equals.

The immediate concern has been that Thaksin's followers will react violently to a decision against their party.

Security officials have even taken measures to keep Thai Rak Thai supporters from bringing elephants to the capital to add their weight to any protests.

Army commander Gen. Sonthi Boonyaratglin, the head of the coup-makers, said Monday that 13,000 police and soldiers will be deployed in Bangkok's streets to keep the peace.

But fears of violence seem overwrought. The military have been warning almost continuously since overthrowing Thaksin about alleged efforts by the former leader to stir up trouble, though nothing concrete has emerged except for some raucous and poorly attended anti-government rallies, and critical Web sites.

Both parties have been discouraging their followers from public demonstrations against any verdict.

Chaturon Chaisaeng, the acting head of Thai Rak Thai after Thaksin's ouster, believes the powers-that-be have targeted his party for eradication, but he is optimistic.

"We don't believe that our party will be dissolved. There's no factual evidence and no legal basis to dissolve the party," he said. "Whatever we do, fighting for democracy, critiquing the constitution draft, criticizing the government ... will be done by peaceful means."

"If the worst comes and the party is disbanded, we will regroup to form a new party," he said.

Abhisit Vejjajiva, head of the Democrat Party, also insisted his party is not guilty of election law violations.

"A lot of people said both parties may be banned to show a sense of fairness. I believe the case should be judged by its merits," he said, adding that the dissolution of both parties could prolong the political crisis.

"If both parties are banned, 49 executive members of the Democrat Party and 119 from the Thai Rak Thai will be barred from running for office in the next election ... if that actually happens, I believe the elections will be somewhat meaningless," Abhisit said.

"Politically, it is a bad idea. You are depriving people of choice."